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International Business Machines Corporation Message Board

  • aristocat4 aristocat4 May 27, 1999 3:31 PM Flag

    Good time to buy IBM while its down

    IT may well close up its already headed that
    direction, and monday it could easily be up 20 points IBM
    tends to do that,
    it has a $275 target and I believe
    it will beat that.
    http://go.com
    I recommend a
    buy on IBM now.

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    • Revenues up 15%.

    • <EOM>

    • .

    • IBM bolted higher the day after 4/99 earnings and
      continued to rise. IBM has kept its gains since 4/99, and
      CNBC began spouting off about IBM going into a new
      earnings valuation - similar to the net stocks. For this
      reason, I am expecting at least a mild pop after
      earnings.

    • is still going to rally nearthe close. I feel
      there is a lot of downward pressure on the market as
      well as the stock. The market makers must be
      manipulating thing.

      PBS had a special on how G. Soros
      and others caused Thialand's currency to melt down.
      The stock may close lower today but I doubt. Shake
      and the little money people and then they will buy
      everything up for a bargin. Well, I will be right there with
      them on the ride up.

      Ok, It ok to call it a
      blue pig, I will not take offense. I know how people
      get affectionate with a car or something, they give
      it a pet name. I am banking on this pig growing into
      a full grown boar. I hope this is a greedy little
      pig. I hope this pig takes it gloves of as soon as the
      consent decree is lifted and start kicking
      A$$!

      This is by no means a response to your previous post.
      It seemed as if you gave me an assignment in that
      one. A response will require a bit more
      effort.

      By theWay, On the Aptiva ranking: I saw in one
      publication that it was ranked 2nd behind Packard Bell and in
      another publication 4th.

      Do some profitable trade
      for the rest of the day.

      jvii

    • stkhldr equity as an important guide for buying
      stock unless the price is below. then either numbers
      wrong or you have a steal.

      when i am in
      different mood i try and explain why i call him louie the
      liar. the shorthand is that the price of the stock is a
      false one. it here largely because of the buyback size.
      it is a major pump and dump.Yes. not like the penny
      stock arena where it occurs over weeks or months. Bear
      in mind that the Catholic church regarded the
      insurance "guy", Martin frankel as their financial
      salvation.
      Asharp decline in stkhldr equity is a red flag.
      something not healthy.

      First all earnings reports
      (stock splits, contracts, i.e. "news" is only important
      int he short term cause of the buying or selling they
      create. prices move according to buying or selling of the
      shares.this stock has been on volume steroids--company
      buying. can it continue--it is self defeating. must be
      unless business improves (dont give me eps, what are
      total profits---they wont be up the same
      percent---cause less shares---buyback) the result is that it
      takes more money to buy the same shares. if
      earnings(total) dont increase at same rate then must increase
      borrowings or reduce buying. if reduce buying we get
      withdrawal symptoms.(shaky stock)---more people take
      profits. plummet.(increase in debt affects earningsto
      decline cause debt must be fed.---interest
      rates)

      thanks for the concern bout physical health but i
      recuperated from that. had to get more sleep for a few days.
      fool day's trading, shopping,a little law work, then
      posting--not a lot of sleep. and it seems when one gets older
      you need more sleep.

      I never liked to sleep
      took away time from what was going on. but i enjoying
      it now. should go back to sleep. posting at 2:40 a.m
      will be up at 5 to check the world.

      Just dont
      make a permanent commitment to this stock. it got to
      pay the price for the buyback addiction.
      imo.

      good luck. i think it will push against 139
      tomorrow---jump after earnings anncmt and then decline. that is
      why i would sell tues. opening. I may do it with 200
      shares just to see how my stomach reacts. I'll post if i
      do.

      tekelet.

    • No doubt some of borrowings are to pay off
      maturing debt--but they are issuing 5-15-30 year debt as
      well as 2. and have been under the multiple shelf
      registrations i referred to. Further evidence that they are
      using "borrowed money" to buyback their stock is the
      decline in the stkhldr equity. Given they have earnings
      and pay only a fraction thereof in divs. the only way
      the stkhldre eq. goes down is "writeoffs" (which they
      had to stop cause of the regularity and accountants
      saying that means earnings a lie---i.e. if it keeps
      happening it is not an irregular event) and stock buyback
      greater than earnings for the period involved.

      As
      you say and which i agree with. no one knows how
      adversely it will affect them in the future but it is
      definite significant error (imho)--affects their ability
      to compete on product. the gerstener strategy as i
      interpret his mouthings and actions is cant compete with
      wintel (and dell)use their prods. mine reputation. push
      stock up with massive cash---giving impression of
      success. The emperor's new suit will eventually be seen
      for what it is---no miracle cloth.

      tekelet.

    • Yeah, I was wondering what happened to you. I
      hope you are healing up just fine. We were considering
      taking up a collection for a ransome. Sometimes you can
      get so busy or come to the realization there is life
      outside of this forum.

      Now back to business, I
      have a lots of catching up to do.

      I would like
      to think everyone behaved in my absence but boys
      will be boys. This is not a sexist remark, nor am I
      excluding the women who grace this forum.

      Lou, Jr.
      said he would rather increase Shareholders' Value than
      Shareholders' Equity. That is alright by me. Stock was down
      anyways when Shareholders' Equity was up. Do you normally
      use Shareholders' Equity as a basis for investing? I
      do not. I use other financial measurables to
      determine if Shareholders Value (Stock Price for this
      discussion) will increase. Since I do not short a stock
      currently, I have no interest in Shareholders' Value going
      down.

      As far as the price mathmatics of what the selling
      price paid for stock going into the ESOP (Employees'
      Stock Option Plan) and the TDSP (Tax Deferred Saving
      Plan)is, I do not have a clue. With the hugh volume
      procured, I am sure they are not bought at market price but
      at a hugh discount. Only small investors like me pay
      market prices.

      Since Lou, Jr. is doing what he
      said about Shareholders Value,i.e., increase it, I
      think he is not a liar. Liars make excuses when what
      they said does not pan out. He brought IBM back, where
      is the lie?


      Yes, the DUCK is on a roll. I
      really do appreciate your input about the debt issue. I
      shall not ignore it.

      Get ready for a big earning
      surprise of 20%, earning per share of $1.00 this quarter
      will not surprise me.

      Remember, take it easy on
      the tennis court, it is just a game.

      j7 =
      jvii

      You are into MFST, right?

    • I am looking for a list of the companies that make up the XLK. Please excuse this interruption of your discussion: XLK has no message board on Yahoo. Thank you.

    • Okay Tek, once more. IBM issues debt instruments
      with varying maturity dates, it even
      says so in
      their registrations, read them. When the debt issue
      matures, it is paid off and, if
      more debt is wanted by
      the company, they issue more. The issue may be more
      than what
      matured or it may be less, depending on
      their need (wants). If they had $4B mature and
      get
      paid off this month and they issue $3B, their total
      debt goes down by $1B, conversely,
      if they had $3B
      mature and they issue $4B, their debt goes up by $1B.
      This is not really a
      replacement. They also do
      finance sales, as shown by their $705M 1Q99 revenues
      from
      Global Financing. If this is incorrect, please explain
      how/why.

      Just another way of looking at things, in
      1993 the total IBM debt, $27.3B was 45% of
      their
      revenues of $60.4B. In 1998, debt was $29.5B or 36% of
      $81.6B in revenues.
      Looking at it this way, the
      amount of debt, as a % of revenues, has declined since
      93.

      I never said or inferred that the debt was a good
      thing or that it didn�t affect valuations or
      stock
      prices. I merely disagree with you on the magnitude of
      the effect. And I did post
      previously about the
      decline in stockholder equity. Again, looking at it a
      little differently,
      the stockholder equity per share
      in 93 was $17.18, in 98 it was $21.18, 93 figure
      adjusted
      for the 2 for 1 split in 97. Could they have done
      better? Of course. They also could have
      done worse. I
      still don�t think that any of this is going to cause
      the demise of IBM by
      2002, or any other time in
      the near future. No one can predict with certainty
      what is going
      to happen in the future. We will see
      in 3 years who was right about IBM, assuming
      that
      we both are still around (I plan on being here for a
      long time yet).

      It�s not a crime to be a dirty
      old man, only a crime to do some of the things some
      dirty old
      men do. Actually, I prefer the term �sexy,
      soiled, senior citizen,� and I may be one some day if I
      live long enough.

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IBM
190.41-0.82(-0.43%)Aug 22 4:01 PMEDT

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