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International Business Machines Corporation Message Board

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  • hfgc_98 hfgc_98 Sep 17, 1999 1:12 PM Flag


    AOL is more than 50% off now.

    company advertises on AOL. AOL advertising revernue is
    much much more than that of YHOO. Plus subscription
    fee from membership like me who pays 21.95 each
    month, AOL has great earning report. AOL earning growth
    more than 150% quarter after quarter.

    sellers manipulated AOL down to current bargain price.
    But AOL fundamental has not changed. AOL fundamental
    is still very strong.

    It is best time to buy
    AOL at bargain now before institutional investors,
    bargain hunters rash to buy and AOL jumps big


    By Rick
    Aristotle Munarriz (TMF Edible)

    As for America
    Online, it got the "You've Gotta Bail!" treatment in
    Barron's over the weekend. A hedge fund manager wasn't
    impressed with insiders selling four million
    shares recently. Keep in mind, the company has more than
    a billion shares outstanding. Still, what fun would
    a short covering rally be without shorts.

    The manager, Seabreeze Partners' Doug Kass, feels the
    stock could lose half its value as the company faces
    pricing pressure in the future from charitable upstarts.
    Let's put this into perspective. Even if AOL were to
    tumble below $50, that would only be taking the stock
    back to where it was in December. If Kass were to
    project a single-digit share price for AOL that would
    only take it back another year. Hey, AOL is
    even with what many figured would be S&P 500 stability
    this year. But what are the odds of AOL doubling over
    the year ahead and Kass making the same argument?
    Implying today's price is a fair price?

    the whole "free Internet" argument as a death knell
    for AOL baffles me. AOL was never the cheapest as it
    ran circles around the competition. This wasn't the
    service of choice for 20 million bargain-hunters. It was
    simply the best. Unique immediate content that inspired
    unique immediate community is not something an aspiring
    ISP can provide.

    The real kicker here is
    that someone concerned with AOL's pricing structure
    would bring up the free access revolution in the first
    place. What is subsidizing fee-free online connections?
    Advertising. Doesn't that vindicate AOL's business model?
    Sure, AOL's next price move might be lower rather than
    higher, but if that continues to add subscribers is
    advertising going to suffer? AOL announced this morning that
    900,000 newbies will join up this quarter. Profit
    projections of $0.13 a share are in line with the analysts.
    Only a third of the domestic Internet market has been
    tapped and the world is full of virgin topsoil.

    Is America offline? No. Are the multi-million dollar
    sponsorship deals showing any hint of hooking up with
    abatement? No. So, what's the worry here? Nobody really owns
    the water. Let the world sample the free water
    fountains. They will still thirst for Coke. Let them delight
    at finding free television weeklies bundled in the
    local Sunday papers. They will still thumb through TV

    Besides, am I the only one who sees the
    fallacy in these government cheese ISPs? They are relying
    on ad space to offset access costs. Now, ask
    yourself this: if you had a product to sell and had a
    finite supply of ad dollars, where would you turn? Would
    you go with AOL or would you go where the
    demographics have been weaned off disposable income to the
    point where $20 for convenient monthly access is passed

    I've never seen a billboard on a water
    fountain, and I say that with some degree of authority.
    After all, my son almost inherited the water....!!

    -- Rick Aristotle Munarriz

121.04+3.19(+2.71%)Feb 12 4:01 PMEST