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Halcon Resources Corp. Message Board

  • valueman60 valueman60 Sep 13, 2013 8:23 AM Flag

    My view

    I continue to feel that the extreme views that dominate this board are not valid. That means I do not agree with the likes of the bashers like HKstinks, Nleesman or the likes of the "going to $8 soon pumpers".
    HK at current price represents a very reasonable value , considering the balance of risks and potential upside. It was grossly overvalued at $8 , and may be getting undervalued presently.
    The positive things I gleaned from yesterday's conference:
    1. current production is around 40,000 BOE/d , production growth is key to the HK story.
    2. they FINALLY are indicating that next year (2014) cap ex budget is anticipated to decrease (by up to 15 percent , but still maintaining the production growth trajectory. This is a DOUBLE edged sword POSITIVE as it means that as the year rolls on, cash flow from increased production will increase revenue coupled with decreased spending translates into improved earnings. AND it signals that management has finally gotten the message from the street that it wants progress on the spending discipline etc.
    Why this is so important, is that presently we are in the height of fear and doubt syndrome, and this allows the shorts to run wild. When the above improved earnings picture is becoming more clear, this horrible current sentiment will first be chipped away at and slowly but surely will change to neutral and then ultimately to a positive sentiment. Patience will be key, as this will take sufficient time AND FACTS ON THE GROUND. ie HK will have to report the numbers,

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    • My view: You are a weasel and a douchebag. Own it.

    • well value, you call me a "basher" and I call you a self-absorbed, ego maniac with delusions of grandeur...but name calling aside I disagree with your (and your bff Spartacus) muted cheerleading view of HK for the following reason. Much like an alcoholic and a drug addict, the first step is to recognize and admit that there is a problem. Your whole argument, as far as I know based on your many many posts, is that there is NO problems. Its just mm messing with all of us (believe or not I also have shares in this pig). But the simple fact is that there are SIGNIFICANT issues with this company and in particular with the management of this company. If those issues are not addressed, the share price will not recover in a year or two or five or ten.

      I will give you just one example: In a quarter or two, Floyd will be forced to issue more common to finance capex for 2015 because his production is not nearly enough (based on HK's projections and not your idiotic estimates) to pay for it. So based on what you said that the price will take a long time to recover, in a quarter or two from now we will probably be around this same level or lower. What do you think Floyd will get from anyone for another 300 to 500 million shares of this pig? Do you think he will get $5.10 again?

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • 3 Replies to hkstinks
      • s.eranger@sbcglobal.net s.eranger Sep 13, 2013 1:36 PM Flag

        I think you should sell this "pig." Clearly, you don't believe in management. Why hang around and suffer more losses? I don't care if you're long or short.

        "Muted cheer-leading?" I'm down $20K at the moment. I chose to invest in HK. I don't think the stock is a pig. I think they're having growing pains...I've been investing for years. "If you can't afford to pay, you should not play." Charles "Chuckles" Cohen

        Now, enough of your #$%$.

      • I almost feel embarrassed answering you , because frankly, you are despicable and not worthy of my attention, but for the sake of others I will say this:
        You obviously have not read my posts. For the last one year plus, I have stated MANY times that there are PROBLEMS with HK. Many times I have warned people not to believe hypesters who were only talking about pie in the sky positives and ignoring the substantial negatives I have posted about REPEATEDLY. In fact , I have been attacked more times than I can count and been accused of being a short/basher because I have honestly shared my view of the substantial negatives that have surrounded HK and still do. So it is hilarious and absurd for you to characterize me the way you have.
        I don't have an axe to grind, I see the company's negative and positives and see that there is some light at the end of the tunnel. You don't. FINE, but imho, you stink. you want to abuse other people because you have a short position and you want to hurt people who have already been hurt so very badly. People here feel badly enough because of the pain of being ground down by the poor shareprice action of HK the last year or so, they don't need your bashing.
        As far as the other part of your post, re the need for further equity offering, I don't doubt that it will happen at some point ( and I have posted that), however, what you are failing to see or even allow the possibility of , is that the fact that they are planning to decrease the capex for 2014, despite still growing production significantly signifies that are aware of the "issues" you are "concerned" about and there will be improvement of them. I agree that it will be slow, I said they have dug a big hole , but your claim that there is no hope for the solution is absurd.

      • hkstinks,

        "there are SIGNIFICANT issues with this company and in particular with the management of this company"

        "Floyd will be forced to issue more common to finance capex for 2015 because his production is not nearly enough (based on HK's projections and not your idiotic estimates) to pay for it."

        You have summed up Halcons situation in the above two statements.

        What's important is how the market reacts to this situation. So far there seems to be very little remaining support for Floyds management style. The stock price is managements report card and so far HK is failing.

        No price rebound to the latest selloff, as a matter of fact it's still moving down.

    • spartacusad@rocketmail.com spartacusad Sep 13, 2013 8:58 AM Flag

      I think you're spot on. Once..I was down over $100K on a stock. I felt the fundamentals were there and held. Three years later I sold and made $175K.

      This stock is headed in the right direction.

 
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