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Halcón Resources Corporatio Message Board

  • valueman60 valueman60 Oct 9, 2013 8:58 AM Flag

    Case study-anatomy of a


    Even though this post sources info from another thread, I am making a new thread because this such a good example that will help communicate to ALL HONEST AND INTELLIGENT people , a point that is of VITAL importance in navigating this board , One that I often speak to.

    Sheepherder starts a thread titled "HK $7 or 8...... Nov.5th"
    Wow , pretty nice , right?

    to support this huge move, he is predicting Q3 report of $325 milllion revenues. Don't know if even that number would support a move to $7 or 8, but it would be a very nice beat of estimates for the quarter, but that is not my main point.
    Knowing the figure is suspect, I ask Sheepherder to give us the breakdown of his analysis.

    He responds "45k x $100 x .77 nri x 91 days on qtr = about 325 million
    and exit rate will be increasing every quarter thereafter. Nov 5th"

    seeing the OBVIOUS multiple flaws, but not wanting to offend, I politely make suggestions for corrections, giving him the benefit of the doubt of his motive, and hoping he will come clean.

    He responds "Yep. Value is a perception based on various influences, and numbers are numbers. Wisdom tells you that numbers do not always dictate value. but as exit rates increase, the numbers will drive in a direction as matters of fact. (will they not?)
    I would rather you perform you own math string."

    So while numbers were the foundation for his pump prediction , when his numbers are shown to be ridiculously bogus and too high, instead of saying , ooh , I am sorry I misled the board, he attempts to divert, saying essentially, " numbers are not so important " They were before, but since he either erred or lied, now they are not. NO, NO, NO, can't do that.
    The point is that this type of pumping is common on this board. Don't fall for it. Don't believe it because someone writes it on this board, me included. Verify , verify

    This topic is deleted.
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