Valueman is long Halcon stock at much higher prices.. he has claimed recently that stock price at 4.50 was WAY oversold due to "panic sellig" ... obviously he is down a high percentage on this stock and is now flipping to a bearish view on future. I feel sorry for his imaginary "followers".
My analysis is based on facts and is not complicated, its based on managements own words from their last call.... WHY WILL THEY GROW PRODUCTION AND REVENUES HERE ARE SOME EXAMPLES:
"The downspacing issues in the Williston basin could be really important for our company and others. Our total location inventory in the basin could be nearly 1,000 if Middle Bakken and Three Forks downspacing testing continues to be fruitful."
"El Halcón is proving to be a scalable, high-quality Eagle Ford shale play for our company".
"What I can say is that the initial wave of completion design modifications that we've done from the north end of the field doubled our IPs and our 30-day rates, and down the south end, increased them by 30% to 50%. That should yield a much higher type curve, but we're just not prepared to put those out there. You can take our old type curves and just assume that the new ones will be higher."
"we project that we can grow the company dramatically year-over-year while spending a lot less money in 2014 than we did in 2013. So we're taking CapEx down 20% or 30%, raising -- we're increasing production 20% to 30%, and we expect to lower unit production costs by 20% or more. So we're looking for quite a nice confluence of things for next year.
"We've just scratched the surface at El Halcón. I don't even know if we've drilled 50 wells yet there, maybe 40 or so, and 2/3 of those have been frac-ed thereabouts. We have room for 1,000 or more wells there, so we just scratched the surface. And with this downspacing in the Williston Basin, as Charles mentioned, perhaps doubling our potential -- DOUBLING our potential location count up there, it's -- we have a lot."