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GNC Holdings Inc. Message Board

  • investora2z investora2z Jun 15, 2013 8:41 AM Flag

    Hovering around highs

    It is again hovering around the highs after a correction of around 7%. The corrections were bought, but it is not able to gain enough strength to cross recent highs. Perhaps it needs some positive news flow to help it gain more momentum. The fundamentals have been good as the company reported decent growth in the last quarter. The guidance for the next year gives a revenue of $2.66 billion and an EPS of $2.80. The second quarter estimates for revenue and earnings per share are $674 million and $0.74 respectively. This indicates expectations of 9% and 20% growth on these metrics in the second quarter. The supplements market is expected to grow to $15.5 billion by 2017 (35% growth), and the competition is also increasing. Some smaller players are also launching products which may have potential in the long term. Nicotinamide Riboside (a vitamin found in milk) has been commercially launched recently by Chromadex Corporation (CDXC). GNC needs to get some good products to bolster growth and improve the margins. Slippages in earnings will not be very welcome because the stock has already grown substantially. It is up 50% since January when it made its 52 week low. The valuations are still reasonable, but may become a little stretched if the stock goes much higher from here. The ttm price-to-earnings is less than 19 and forward P/E is 13.69. The only worry is the relatively high level of debt. The consensus price target given by analysts for the stock is around $50 which is 8-9% away from current levels. Due to the good growth in stock so far, GNC has to deliver on the fundamentals consistently to achieve the price target. Going by past performance, the probability for that is good. However, due to the discount programs launched recently, the margins may temporarily come under pressure.

26.02+1.66(+6.81%)May 2 4:01 PMEDT