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Genomic Health Inc. Message Board

  • p.august p.august Jul 20, 2009 2:07 PM Flag

    What's going on?

    GHDX finally started to climb back a bit in the past few trading days - Does anyone know why we're hitting a 52 week low again? With their quarterly report due out in a couple of weeks, I thought I'd continue to see a steady climb, especially with the dramatic recent climb in the markets overall. Their OncotypeDx test numbers continue to increase as they expand testing tumor samples from so many more countries now. Thus the overall concerns about lack of health insurance in the USA should not be a factor (e.g. Myriad Labs). 90% of USA insurers cover the test anyway (including Medicare). As an RN with oncology experience, and one who has had Stage I invasive breast cancer, I am certain that Oncotype Dx is the future in determining who will get chemo in 50% of all newly diagnosed breast cancer patients worldwide. Almost every medical oncologist and gyn oncologist I've spoken with in the past year or so agrees. Not only do most insurers cover the test, many now recommend it, including my own insurer (BC/BS of MA). A couple of collegues who work for insurance co's told me that some insurers are actually on the verge of REQUIRING OncotypeDx testing on all Stage I and Stage II, node negative tumors, before the patient makes her/his decision re chemo. Since 10 and 20 year survival rates prove that >50% of these patients do not appear to benefit from chemo, insurers are HAPPY to pay the $3000+ for the test, rather than the tens of thousands of dollars that chemo can cost. Unless I'm wrong, I don't think that GHDX is named in the ACLU suit, which will take years before it goes all the way to the US Supreme CT anyway. (Myriad, et al have been named; also, the patent rights on the BRACA tests are getting close to expiration). While I see obvious reasons for Myriad's >35% decline in the past month, I don't understand what the problem is with GHDX stock. So, to anyone out there in the know - what's going on?

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    • Here's your anal retentive problem. You are a long. You are pissed at the stocks performance and you're loosing you cool.

      My edukation has nothing to do with my frugal chioces on stock picks. I'll bet your edukation didn't help you when you decided to buy GHDX at $21 and are now stuck thinking what an idiot you were to buy a non-profitable company at this point.

      Can U argue any points why one should own GHDX at this point? Which of my points to you disagree with? The poor performance on stock price or the fact GHDX does not make money?

      Can you spell "La Who Zer", Mr.(MS in your case) I got in at $21.

    • < There is no reason to date this chick until she gets a face lift and looses some weight. And yep, you're thick>

      before you pretend to be educated and call someone thick, learn how to spell.

      no one "looses" some weight. " loses" some weight even sounds better.

      unless, of course, you are a "dick" which rhymes with thick.

    • >God, you are an imbecile. Even for an amateur short. <

      If I had been a short, I would not have been an imbecile given the decline in the past few weeks. Shorts have GHDX for another couple $. I am not a short. Any comment I've made is valid and proven given the state of GHDX as far as stock price.

      Product supremicy and knowledge, if GHDX had it, has nothing to do with profitability or stock price direction. My position is "Hold" until a catalyst occurs. I won't stoop to calling you names, personally, but exceptions happen...

      ... Jane, (you must be a woman) you ignorant slut.

    • "By the way, the long dissertations on the knowledge of this product, especially from Docs in the field, don't mean dick. "

      God, you are an imbecile. Even for an amateur short.

    • In other words, This company is not making money and its' stock price is hitting new lows. There is no reason to date this chick until she gets a face lift and looses some weight. And yep, you're thick.

      By the way, the long dissertations on the knowledge of this product, especially from Docs in the field, don't mean dick.

      GHDX needs a catalyst. Oversold conditions usually presents a buying opportunity for companies that make money. Hoping someone buys them would be the only reason to buy here.

    • to davecath126, rjkpurple, and everyone who invests in biotechs and life science co's: briefly to davecath, thanks for your help, and the tip on ALNY - havn't bought yet, but will start my homework on its product line - I certainly noticed the 25% spike the day after your post - the best of luck to you.

      And now to rjk purple and your oncology expertise. Thank you so much for your highy informative response - I'm sure all GHDX holders will be appreciative of your extensive knowledge. Also, I will be adding the companies you mentioned re Baker Brother Advisers to my homework list. I'd love to get some input from you in 2 areas of your expertise if/when you have any knowledge of and/or time to check out either issue.

      I am considering buying shares of Celsion (CLSN). Do you know anything about their product Thermodox? It's in an early trial phase as an adjuctive Rx, when combined with hyperthermia, for recurrent chest wall breast cancer (RCW). My personal interest relates to the fact that my Stage I (0.8 cm) of IDC was so close to my chest wall, that my clear posterior margin was 0.4cm from the IDC, and 0.1cm from the DCIS. Two surgeons agreed that there was no more breast tissue for a second resection. Thankfully, I am not a candidate for the ThermoDox study, but I fear I could fall victim to RCW at some point in the future, which, as you know, has a rather poor prognosis. If you are aware of the product, and have any scientific thoughts re the future of ThermoDox this early in its testing phase, I'd love to know what you think. (I apologize for sounding like a patient, when it's investment thoughts I'm looking for.)

      Now, again to rjk purple and all biotech fans out there about the ACLU suit filed in Federal Ct. in May '09.(U.S.D.C. for the Southern District of NY in Manhattan.) I don't know how many people are aware of it, but this case is poised to produce a landmark decision from the US Supreme Ct; it needs to be watched very closely by everyone invested in biotechs and life sciences.

      The central issue regards the patentability of human genes and genetic sequences. IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE A TSUNAMI EFFECT ON THE ENTIRE BIOTECH/LIFE SCIENCE SECTORS. (I have been wondering if jitters from this lawsuit has been contributing to the declining price of GHDX, and I don't know how "grandfathering" will play out on this issue.)

      As briefly as possible here are the basics: It seems that during the past 20 years, 20% of the human genome has already been patented, and genetic patent rights continue to excellerate. The lawsuit's name is: "Association for Molecular Pathology, et al. v. US Patent and Trademark Office, et al." The ACLU is also one of the plaintiffs in addition to numerous breast cancer patients. The defendants are the PTO, Myriad Labs and the University of Utah Research Foundation. The suit relates to the BRCA gene sequencing patent, but its implications will effect all gene expression patterns. The ACLU claims that all existing and future genetic patents are invalid and unconstitutional under the 1st ammendment, because genes and genetic sequences are naturally occuring parts of our bodies - not inventions. (Patents are not normally granted for products of nature - patents are supposed to reward inventors for their work.) The plaintiffs claim that co's like Myriad have monopolies that prevent R&D for competing + improved product lines.

      The defendants argue that they must have the patent rights on the genetic sequencing they discover in order to invest their capital to develop their tests and product lines.

      So...the eventual outcome is anyone's guess, but I have a feeling it will land in the lap of the US Supreme Ct. within 2 years.

      Sorry for such a long post, but it's Saturday, I don't feel like doing any housework or yard work, and I think it is supra important to follow this legal case.

    • sorry, must be thick. don't understand your joke? I don't know how accurate the data is. Don't you think it's a reasonable estimate? I really don't know what they base their estimates on.

    • p.august:

      I too am invested heavily in GHDX. I am a physician in the oncology field and actually perform genomic research in the laboratory as well. We are currently looking at genetic signatures in lung cancer. Although I kicking myself for not selling when we recently hit $27 recently, I remain bullish on this company for the following reasons (bear in mind I am not business-minded and will not comment on the financial aspects of GHDX):

      1. Oncotype Dx for breast cancer is here to stay. This has clearly become routine for most breast cancer specialists, both in academic centers and even the community. Even more powerful is that patients are very well informed about this test and almost demand that it gets performed. Oncotype has been "branded" with breast cancer such as the way Kleenex has been branded with facial tissue.

      2. Oncotype Dx uses formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissues for their assay. No other company which uses frozen sections (e.g. Mammoprint) will ever compete - as a surgeon I can tell you how easy it is to send tissue off from paraffin-embedded blocks compared to frozen tissue.

      3. The concept of gene expression patterns in oncology clearly will be applicable to multiple solid tumor types. Data in lung cancer, for example, is coming together so that we may be able to predict recurrence patterns for early stage disease using gene expression. I can almost guarantee that this will happen.

      4. Finally (and least scientific) is that Baker Brother Advisors (a biotech hedge fund) owns a significant amount of GHDX stock (18% of the company) and added to their holdings when the price came down to 17 a few weeks ago. I have made a lot of money by following their moves in other issues (RDEA, BCRX, INCY, SGEN, ALTH, still waiting on VPHM).

      In summary, although it obviously makes me nervous, I have been adding to my position in GHDX at the 16 level. I obviously can't predict the stock price, but Oncotype Dx is not going away and this company will not go out of business. The only thing somewhat concerning is the potential role of the federal regulators in this market - as these tests become more prevalent, they may step in and add roadblocks. However, Oncotype Dx is so established that, even is this happens, it will be "grandfathered in".

      This is my take on this and I hope you find it useful.

    • p.august-

      Could not help but respond to your post. GHDX has been acting odd of late. As I invest in a couple of competing diagnostic firms as well I don't want to be accused of "poaching" here. I think that without GeHDX plowing the tough ground with their Oncotype Dx product many of it's competitors would have a much more difficult time with their competing CLIA tests.

      That said, the landscape changes and companies must keep up with their business models, their research and their operations in an ever changing environment.

      In my opinion GHDX needs to expand their menu as much of the focus from their competitors is using gene expression profiles as well as protein markers in combination to evaluate direction of care.

      Currently I am invested in CLRT and follow NGNM, DGX, GHDX, and GXDX in this sector.

      All the best.

      • 1 Reply to ggrail
      • I too only invest in biotech stocks and like p.august am not diversified. I have decided to only invest in things I know very well and a product that I understand ( having read The Sage of Omaha). I don't really understand the financials that well. As far as I can see this company is going to become profitable this year. I am presuming that the share price will take off at that point but am not sure?? It does seem cheap at $16. Use of the Oncotype DX for breast cancer will increase, but I am not sure that the colorectal one will really take off and I don't know what else they have in the pipeline. I'm intrigued as to the recent post which said that the stock might go down from here given that we are at our low for the last two years and revenues are growing.

    • RN with oncology experience- I wanted to try to respond to your question, though I don't claim to be in the know. As disclosure, I too own some shares.
      I agree they have great science with essentially standard of care test. They don't have a quarterly profit yet. They also have some people shorting their shares (Yahoo finance states ~5% about a month ago, it might be higher now). They are trying to expand internationally which should help, but they have to pay all these new sales reps they are hiring, again delaying profitability.
      I think that their pipeline potential is good (possibly phenomenal) but again it takes money for all the r&d.
      So now the hard part- do you just hold onto the shares you own, buy more or sell? I'm not positive what I'm going to do. I'm leaning toward buying more but not yet- I'm afraid it may go lower before it goes higher. I'd take my loss now and buy more in a few months but then could wind up kicking myself if someone (Roche, Pfizer,etc.) buys the company in the meantime. I know that this is not entirely clear but I hope it helps some.

      • 2 Replies to davecath12680
      • Thank you davecath - your input IS definately helpful - obviously I'm not sure what to do either, but based on your info + my knowledge of the products, I'm leaning towards a holding long on GHDX, as I'm convinced about the science and long term future of their tests, even if, as you said, the company might not survive, but shares could increase significantly with a buyout. I'm not a typical investor, and am definately not diversified - I pretty much ignore analysts - I do look at a company's financials, but don't fully comprehend what I'm looking at in that arena. Perhaps you could help me out with your knowledge in that area, and I could help you out with my expertise if you are interested in my area of knowledge. I only buy biotech and pharma stocks that I have done extensive research on, including reading all the FDA submissions and issues concerning all 3 phases of clinical trials. I have to be personally convinced that the science is sound, that there is a significant need for the drug, and there are few and/or inferior existing drugs to compete with. I am most heavily invested in small pharmas (< $5.00/share) where owners and officers are heavily invested. I look for first in its class drugs, newer drugs with fewer side effects, or drugs to treat conditions where no new drugs have been developed in the past 20+ years for the illness. I bought JAZZ (fibromyalgia), AVNR (a first in its class drug), for a condition (PBA) effecting 2 million people in the US, just a couple of months ago on dips and sold half my shares on recent spikes. I've had my share of screw-ups too, but not that many. (most recently with ARNA, which I bought in March '09 at $5.95). I was thrilled yesterday AM - one of my biggest recent successes! I got HGSI (new drug for Lupus) at $2.31/share a couple of weeks ago, and just sold 1/2 my shares at $12.48 this AM. I am hot on CLSN, and will buy on the next small dip. (check out the results of their recent trials on ThermoDox). I have just started my research on CYTR - it usually takes me 3-4 weeks to make a decision on a stock. Thanks again for your help - Although I read message boards, this is the first time I've ever posted.

 
GHDX
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