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Genomic Health Inc. Message Board

  • mdwhittier mdwhittier Feb 5, 2014 12:51 PM Flag

    Meh - Guidance

    frankyassissi: we're both bulls on ghdx but here's the reality. I was optimistic that guidance for FY'14 would come in much better; so did the street. In the cc from last Jan '13 the co. guided that OncoDx for prostate should begin to get traction by Q4 2013. I think the sell off is justified. Probably a good opportunity to begin to build a position, and add more if things get ugly. The s.p. might be stagnant for some months, no? Doesn't appear to be any near-term catalyst here. Ideas?

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • At the time I did my DD on GHDX, I also looked into taking positions in CGIX and MYGN. In the end, I held out for a position in GHDX today. I hear a lot about CGIX being the premier molec Dx co. when compared to GHDX but at this time I felt GHDX was a better fit for me.

    • I had pretty much the same take away. I thought the spending ramp for prostate was a positive since it is in response to stronger than expected demand. They are definitely under promising hopefully to set up an over delivery in a few quarters. The lack of catalysts you cite can change quickly. I would not be surprised if the NICE OncoTypeDX Breast endorsement opens several doors in western Europe. Most of Europe is looking for ways to cut healthcare costs and trimming unnecessary chemotherapy can be a strong incentive. I can see that it might take several months to negotiate with payers so announcements of new payment agreements could hit at any time.

      I think that GHDX is very conservative and has only built projection of current growth rates into their guidance. They will have to reach the tipping point (sales staff learning curve etc.) before the growth rate can ramp.

      FL

    • Long-term hold and add here. They have validation studies and pubs due mid-year for DCIS and Prostate that will drive reimbursement. They have NICE to build on, which is huge. The investment they're making now is heavier than anticipated, but the end result is $1.3 billion in revs. They said 10% prostate end of this year. When prostate takes off, so will the share price. In January presentation, they announced prostate revs at

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to frankyassissi
      • I agree....On the last recent dip in early Jan I bought shares and then traded out of them when the current market rout began, but re-entered my position this morning. I usually don't trade all that much, but have learned that bio-tech often gets hammered more than the mkt. averages when ill winds blow. Just got lucky, really. I'll add more if the sp gets worse. Long term, this will get to $50+ without much trouble.

        Sentiment: Buy

 
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