Re to:tool " weakness in the August-September time frames."
This is common to the mood of investors in the general market.
Take the S&P500 as a proxy, use 1990-2005 history by the calendar. On average the market makes +0.70% gains in the first 3 quarters. In the 4th quarter the average gain is +7.6%. So Q4 is over 10X as productive as the first 3 Q.
The trick is, Q3 is the weak link. On average the S&P500 loses about 4% in Q3. Much of what is gained in Q1 and Q2 is lost in Q3.
Bring out the last 2 years.
To the swing date 2004 and 2005.
To 10-11-04 market +1.23%, from then to EOY +8.00% To 10-10-05 market -1.2%, from then to EOY +5.1%
Point is, the trend continues as the recent years look like longer term history. It is investor mood.
Notes: Turning point on average 10-9 is at the 77% of the calendar year, and not exactly 75% of the year.
As for me, I would not use this in long positions like MLP's
I do use it in my 401-K plan to move funds in and out of the market to make the better odds.
Probability of making any gains in Q3 is about 20%. Probability of making any gains in Q4 is about 90%.
I like odds much better than 50%, and avoid those less than 50%. Others might not agree.