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Enterprise Products Partners L.P. Message Board

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  • toolatetrade toolatetrade Sep 22, 2006 4:06 PM Flag

    Dan is 35 on Forbes List

    will do.

    I have been looking at charts of a few MLPS today and it seems that there is weakness in the August-September time frames.I looked at a 3 year time frame for each MLPS.

    A rally there after.

    I would like to invite comments. Chart or others

    Toolate

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    • Re to:tool
      " weakness in the August-September time frames."

      This is common to the mood of investors in the general market.

      Take the S&P500 as a proxy, use 1990-2005 history by the calendar. On average the market makes +0.70% gains in the first 3 quarters. In the 4th quarter the average gain is +7.6%. So Q4 is over 10X as productive as the first 3 Q.

      The trick is, Q3 is the weak link. On average the S&P500 loses about 4% in Q3. Much of what is gained in Q1 and Q2 is lost in Q3.

      Bring out the last 2 years.

      To the swing date 2004 and 2005.

      To 10-11-04 market +1.23%, from then to EOY +8.00%
      To 10-10-05 market -1.2%, from then to EOY +5.1%

      Point is, the trend continues as the recent years look like longer term history. It is investor mood.

      Notes:
      Turning point on average 10-9 is at the 77% of the calendar year, and not exactly 75% of the year.

      As for me, I would not use this in long positions like MLP's

      I do use it in my 401-K plan to move funds in and out of the market to make the better odds.

      Probability of making any gains in Q3 is about 20%.
      Probability of making any gains in Q4 is about 90%.

      I like odds much better than 50%, and avoid those less than 50%. Others might not agree.

      Have a nice weekend.

      -chart-

 
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