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Enterprise Products Partners L.P. Message Board

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  • arbtrdr arbtrdr Jan 6, 2010 9:35 PM Flag

    MLPs are now overvalued

    EPD has kept in a liquid cash psoition and investment grade for debt. Management owns millions of the units of both the LP and GP.

    The distribution history is posted below.

    28-Oct-09 $ 0.553 Dividend
    29-Jul-09 $ 0.545 Dividend
    28-Apr-09 $ 0.538 Dividend
    28-Jan-09 $ 0.53 Dividend
    29-Oct-08 $ 0.523 Dividend
    29-Jul-08 $ 0.515 Dividend
    28-Apr-08 $ 0.508 Dividend
    29-Jan-08 $ 0.50 Dividend
    29-Oct-07 $ 0.49 Dividend
    27-Jul-07 $ 0.483 Dividend
    26-Apr-07 $ 0.475 Dividend
    29-Jan-07 $ 0.468 Dividend
    27-Oct-06 $ 0.46 Dividend
    27-Jul-06 $ 0.453 Dividend
    26-Apr-06 $ 0.445 Dividend
    27-Jan-06 $ 0.438 Dividend
    27-Oct-05 $ 0.43 Dividend
    27-Jul-05 $ 0.42 Dividend
    27-Apr-05 $ 0.41 Dividend
    27-Jan-05 $ 0.40 Dividend
    27-Oct-04 $ 0.395 Dividend
    28-Jul-04 $ 0.373 Dividend
    28-Apr-04 $ 0.373 Dividend
    28-Jan-04 $ 0.373 Dividend
    29-Oct-03 $ 0.373 Dividend
    29-Jul-03 $ 0.363 Dividend
    28-Apr-03 $ 0.363 Dividend
    29-Jan-03 $ 0.345 Dividend
    29-Oct-02 $ 0.345 Dividend
    29-Jul-02 $ 0.335 Dividend
    16-May-02 2 : 1 Stock Split
    26-Apr-02 $ 0.335 Dividend
    29-Jan-02 $ 0.3125 Dividend
    29-Oct-01 $ 0.3125 Dividend
    27-Jul-01 $ 0.294 Dividend
    26-Apr-01 $ 0.275 Dividend
    29-Jan-01 $ 0.275 Dividend
    27-Oct-00 $ 0.2625 Dividend
    27-Jul-00 $ 0.2625 Dividend
    26-Apr-00 $ 0.25 Dividend
    27-Jan-00 $ 0.25 Dividend
    27-Oct-99 $ 0.225 Dividend

    The adjusted unit price including distributions and splits since 1/7/00 is under $9.

    Last, when interest rates went high in the late 1990s the spread between treasuries actually decreased. The historical correlation between treasuries and MLP yields has been as high as .85 (1995) and decreased steadily to about .5 in 2004. That correlation actually went negative when hedge funds and other speculators stepped in a couple years ago and the correlation now appears to be returning to the norm.

    In looking back on the historical data, Kinder and ETP were closer to 225bps over treasuries when the market place was fairly stable in the early 1980s. I also note that almost nobody, including brokers, even knew the name MLP in 1980. Today they know they name, but most could not tell you about the structure or them.

    I for now will stand by Dan Duncan who continues to reinvest all distributions and buy millions of additional units. Until he goes I will hang in there.

    ARB

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29.74+0.65(+2.23%)Jul 2 4:02 PMEDT