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TASER International Inc. Message Board

  • nasty_shortseller nasty_shortseller May 13, 2005 5:48 PM Flag

    Today's action

    It's almost unchanged as I predicted. This is typical action that hurts the momentum chaser who happen to be at the tail of an uptrend. When the news finally broke, profitakers moved in then fund managers gave up the hike and joined the sellers. Fund managers deliberately did the morning BH pump to set up for the sell off throughout the day. The volume is 19millions with the day chart steeply down. Sellers finally hit the button.

    It took only a tiny volume of 50000 shares to set the price at 12.5 then the defence of it led to 600,000 shares volume BH. Then it quickly raced to 5million during the first 30 minutes of regular trading. That where sell pressure picked up. I realised that sellers finally moved in.

    Next week there will be similar sessions where they try to set up a good price for BH and dump during regular hours. The retail investors who got in at this tail end, buying stocks and calls will suffer. This is like sowing your seeds at the end of the rainy season, the dry spell just casts in before you realise it. There will be all sorts of sellers showing up. FUnd managers who dump some of their shares. Swing traders who take profit. Retail longs who took part of their shares off the table. Daily traders who venture in to buy AH and sell next day.

    Still, it has been a fantastic run for the long suffering retail longs. It's great for many who could afford to buy some more in at 8 and dump it now to recover some of the losses. While I do not rule out the chance of further upside, the risk has increased to extreme level for any one who wants to buy now hoping this stock will go back to 15+. The fundamentals do not support such a move.

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    • Your analysis is probably partly correct but this also smells like (at least in part) like a day trader pump and dump.

      They got the news early, set up the sting and reeled in the retail rookies!

    • I actually agree with you Nasty... It is consolidation and it will be good for the stock in the long run. I would not mind seeing us drop back to 10.50 then get oversold again. I think buy now you can see the trend has changed. Even though those sellers were there at 12.50 we are just getting rid of the dead weight from the last time we were stuck at the 12-14 range. Once that dead weight is done selling the gap to 14 will get filled.

      Nasty ,
      Plain and simple the bottom was in and there are going to be all sorts of buyers under 11 mark my words ..

      • 2 Replies to dealslap
      • I also agree a lot of people that bought around $12., $12.50 sold today. They were just glad to break even after they took the stock down to $7.33 but I really think that they are missing the huge uptrend in store. This stock can easly go back to the $30's, $40's and even $50's and above. World Wide sales, Department of Defence buying tasers, this stock is huge with great upside potential.

      • I still worry about the jitter as the next earning report will come sooner than every one think. No one knows but the insiders. By the look of having a dirt of order announcements, we will have a great jitter near earning report. The risk is that one is sucked in now, then everything is fine until near the reporting time and we have a blip up then massive sell down just prior to the report. Those who buy on margin will be force-closed when the dumping happens.

        I would favour going long by selling puts. If it is sold off, you get exercised at lower net price. There is plenty of opportunity to buy in. Just by spreading the buy orders out to 3 months and pick some only after a week of heavy selling, once can do much better. I suppose those who tried this strategy when Tasr was 33+ lost a lot of money. But now it's looking better as Tasr is still at 1/3 of what it was months ago.

        From this point, getting oversold again needs at least 1.5 weeks. There is plenty of time to think the next buying program.

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