Gov owns 80%. so going back to pre crash highs of $50, that's $10 to us. So max payout is 11 times your money.. not bad, but that's at the next peak of this new housing bubble..assuming it gets that's high again = very unlikely.
so acutual high for FNM is probably $5. in a couple years time. Still a great return, but not what 99% of the people expect.