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First Horizon National Corporation Message Board

  • bmcdearmond01 bmcdearmond01 Sep 4, 2008 2:18 PM Flag

    Where is the money going?

    Oil is at 107.82, Dow down 332, Nasdaq down 66, S&P down 36, Gold & Silver slightly down... It seems like whenever we get a big drop in one area, we get a climb in another market. I'm not seeing that today. I'm relatively new to the stock market (been trading for a year or so). Any idea as to what's going on?

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    • and I assume all longs in this stock are bottom-fishers, you might want to buy Chesapeake Energy with it's large natural gas concentration. Pickens says compressed natural gas is the bridge to the future and the price is down right now. The symbol is CHK.

    • Nothing magical. Just a personal opinion of a number that appears to be good to short. Especially, if you consider the fact that with a 20% rise from Friday's closing, most stocks will go back down unless it has strong fundamentals. But most banks are either undercapitalized or insolvent. The credit crunch can last much longer -- probably another two to three years, then you start seeing commercial loans, auto loans, student loans, and credit cards start to rise dramatically in defaults. That's roughly the time when tens of millions of baby boomers may have to withdraw billions of dollars a month (50M x $1000 = $50B) to supplement their meager Social Security Benefits.

      This is just an empty rally 'cause rescue of FRE and FNM may not necessary prop up the housing market. The US is deep in debt and it needs to go to war or create another bubble -- possibly alternative energy in the next several years to keep it moving because it has lost manufacturing to Europe and Asia. The Fed engineered the housing bubble to rescue the banks and economy from the dot com bubble. However, they did not anticipate the housing bubble would come that fast. But, alas, it did. If you look at the money supple, it is actually in contraction because most banks are still deep in trouble. Rescuing FRE and FNM is just a short term solution and creating an empty rally.

    • May I ask why the MAGIC number 14, or are you just picking that number because it sounds like a good number to short? What is your thinking?

    • If it goes up, good. I'm waiting to short this stock when it goes above $14/share. I've missed the boat when LEH was at $17/share and FRE was at $7/share. The other option is WAMU -- when it get to $6/share, which I doubt if it gets there soon because WAMU has been under the watch of the Fed recently due to deterioration.

    • Regionals shouldn't own much stock in FNM or FRE, but rather they have a lot of debt that is backed by FNM and FRE. Now the government's AAA rating will be backing that debt and regionals look to be much more stable after this development over the weekend.

      Would like to see FHN up 10%+ tomorrow, this could be our short squeeze opportunity that we have all been waiting for. The short position in FHN has never been greater.

    • Over 4 million homes late on payments or already in foreclosure at the end of June. 9 percent of all mortgages! Balloon-payment loans are the largest culprit.

    • Agreed. We're all here to make some money whether long or short. The point of the DISCUSSION board is to calmly & rationally trade information with one another to help eachother out. Nobody here has a crystal ball (atleast one that works), as a result, we're not always going to agree with eachother. A simple "I disagree, this is what I think will happen" is perfectly acceptable. Flaming eachother isn't. You shouldn't feel threatened by someone who has a different idea/strategy than you. They're not holding a gun to your head telling you to execute trades by their rules.

    • I hope everyone read the story in The Commercial Appeal today and got out near the top. Single digits are headed this way, IMO.

    • It is being deposited into FHN branches as we speak

 
FHN
11.24-0.40(-3.44%)Apr 17 4:01 PMEDT

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