Puddle, that would be great to see you try to put together a cohesive arguement for buying IPSU. Here's one that was shockingly on the money from June, but I suspect you've read it and just chose to ignore it. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/956375-equity-insight/187278-imperial-sugar-ipsu-a-train-wreck-waiting-to-happen#comments
Kieger getting out is a bullish statement in my eyes, capitulation central.
I again question alot of the actions of the company including now the ongoing concern statement.
What is important and we'll have to wait is how the loss is broken down. I still think the cash loss is about 25 cents per share. They can write down Wholesome, Wentworth, LSR, and their own underwear all they want, but in my eyes it's the cash loss.
Having said that, I re-iterate the statement that waiting on the sidelines is where I want to be. If you have a decent profit on your short position, you should take it and wait as well, or at least take some of it off the table.
skii for all your correctness in the last 6 months, and you don't want to admit, i've been
right also, because i'm no permabull, i've been
in and out of this 3-4 times, i was smart to wait
for this opportunity.. but will you be smart
enough to realize when the tide can turn ?
the stock mahkit is nevah about the present
aw the past, it's about the fyoo-tcha.
too much man too much
Accordion, did you notice Krieger actually booted IPSU out of his Dirt Cheap Value Portfolio? It looks like my earnings(loss) estimate of 2.01 is a little light. Looks like they'll announce operating loss of AT LEAST 2.50 with writedowns of approx. .75 on top of that. I wonder what they'll writedown on WS.
"going concern" is just accounting language,
boilerplate for any co nearing it's borrowing
capacities. The 10K will reveal 50-55m losses
in fiscal 2011, no surprise. It will reveal IPSU getting near it's loan covenant change-of-terms
which is at 25 mil.. but if you look at sales, sales is still strong.. the catalyst is sugar cost on the downturn, all commodities are on the downturn (deflation, no QE) but with sugar its
also connected to the world crops expectation being much larger in 2012.. so IPSU should be
entering a profitable environment again. When they do, they will actually be stronger than previously, because Gramercy will be online, and Wentorth upgrades and lawsuits are nearing the finish.
The two kickers are the exceptionally low share count of 12m and Wholesome Sweetners. Debt can be matched by selling WS. Selling WS will also
allow them to upgrade the loan covenant.
Overall revenue capacity will be rising at the same time sugar costs are falling. There may also be a long-term solution politically.