as per Iowa St CARD dept., does NOT include,
West Coast premium, net of trans.
The third to last number is margin per gallon.
In January and October margins dipped to exactly .39 after big moves, now our dip was .99
People were kvetching about how ethanol had retraced some of its enormous move of Jan-March and for that reason they were selling pixie.
Remember $1/g margins gets 200MM annual cash flow with Madera open. A 6x multiple would be very conservative.
So pick your average margin and model the time frame you are looking for and see what you get.
Thanks for the info. Taking a look at forward P/E and these margin numbers supporting the longer term story ... it's clear this is a huge buy. Fluctuations in corn and ethanol prices are clearly within profitability margins based on this data
Very good news.
If SP dips further, consider it a stock on sale. Every shopper likes a sale. When the market fear subsides (it always does) and the story becomes more clear after Q1 earnings, we rip higher.
Forward P/E of 5.2 (including recent dilution) is ridiculously low. Considering if this were to trade like GPRE, we'd be pushing a SP of $34. Even at a 20% "PEIX management team unpredictability" fear factor we're still a double from here.
Good luck all traders and longs
Sentiment: Strong Buy
derkampfer, agree with your key statements, in particular subsiding market fear and clarity of story, after q1 results, fear will subside, new money (funds, institutions) will be buying...i believe market sell-off is tax related stemming from massive 2013 gains...we may never see teens again but who knows...as you stated we know the forward p/e is just plain ridiculous, is this market delusional? p/e nowhere near industry nor the likes of its competitors GPRE VLO REX...if stock price does not get to fair value in time, someone will make it get there, no poison pill, de-levered balance sheet (almost debt free)=decreased interest payments, strategic west coast location and permiums,increasing co-product revenues from wdg and corn oil, international demand increasing particular from india,what's not too like
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I ran some statistics for Return Over Operating Costs ($/gallon) on the CARD data from Iowa State and here is what I get, sure hope this is correct -- year, number of market days, sum of Return Over . . ., average of Return Over . . .
2013,252,102.69,.41 best since 2007
2014,70,62.84,.90 best so far, March and April shoot the moon
2014 Jan .56, Feb .55, Mar 1.31, Apr first 9 days 1.47