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Pacific Ethanol, Inc. Message Board

  • baldingcontrarian baldingcontrarian Apr 21, 2014 9:46 PM Flag

    I ran the numbers for Q1

    AVG Baseline operating margin over cost (Iowa Plant)
    83.6 cents/g
    20 cent West coast premium per 10K, above normal premium
    50 cent RIN avg for quarter (per OPIS)
    15 cent positive variance for 2 plants extracting oil + beet sugar enhancement

    total average daily margin for quarter
    168.6 cents/g
    *37 000 000 gallons

    total profit
    62 382 000 dollars

    *91% ownership
    56 787 000 profit to PEIX

    / 18 000 000 shares at 3/31/2014 per SEC filings,

    3.15 EPS

    15 cent variant item is estimate, actual number indeterminate.

    There is no profit or loss contribution allowance for KINERGY division.

    There will be a non cash item for the FV adjustment of warrants, the analyst's and my estimate are
    not accounting for that item. It has no effect on cash, book value, nor shareholder equity.
    In fact it may be a good thing because it will knock down reported earnings and limit tax liability.
    PIX only has about 43MM in NOL carry overs, so while it reduces tax exposure, the item only reflects that the fair value of the warrants has increased dramatically, in accordance to the massive gain in share price.
    It's the irony of GAAP accounting that earnings should be reduced to reflect that the company is doing really well and generating metric a$$loads of cash.

    carry on.

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