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Panera Bread Company Message Board

  • wallstreet_jim wallstreet_jim Dec 17, 2002 1:14 PM Flag

    You're seeing sympathy for MCD

    in PNRA's price today. MCD, IMO, is toast. Greenberg stepped down, which was a big plus, but another MCD lifer (Cantalupo) took his place, which cancelled out the benefit. They need fresh blood from outside the company to turn that mess around.

    We may be seeing a "gift" from above with the PNRA stock price. If it drops much more, it will become a "buy" on my list again.

    Disclaimer: As always, IMHO. Position disclosure: Flat (PNRA, MCD)

    wsj

    P.S. - value, saw the RAWL deal. K2 will probably end up with the company. When you first posted about it going up again, I thought you meant by several $$$ per share. Here, it was under a buck with the K2 announcement. I see the challenge by a minority shareholder, but I suspect it will get nixed.

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    • Granted, sold only 1/3rd my shares, but still would have like the $.75-$1.00 additional gain (RAWL intra-day high $9.28 on the K2 announcement). No comment on HOOV? (same issues)

      I think it has gone beyond sympathy for MCD -- now it's empathy! Feel proud in that for the last several years, I thought a 'proper value' for MCD was $10-12 per share. Didn't 'nonlong' it, but definitely avoided it (half the battle of winning). Think this is hugely negative for BK, JBX, SONC, WEN, CKR (especially Hardees), etc. Also marginally negative on the tangental competitors (RUBO, PNRA, COSI, etc.). Things are not looking good in fast-food land, and that normally spells trouble for those 'up the food chain'.......It's a comin', some are prepared, some aren't...........Good luck to all.......

      • 1 Reply to valuemonster_jurel
      • Mcd has been in trouble for years. As mentioned in today's WSJ, Pnra has had a small part in Mcd's problems by offering better and healthier food with much nicer ambience, to which baby boomers, among others have been attracted. There are many other causes of Mcd's problems, everything from cannibalization of certain stores and lousy food to a silly price war. While Mcd's has warned in 8 of the last 9 quarters, Pnra has done the opposite. But for the fact that Pnra had been up alot lately, I doubt that it would have gone down in sympathy with Mcd today. It generally has not gone down when Mcd or Yum warned in the past. The vast majority of people who go to Panera, would never or only rarely go to McDonalds. While I understand that you have to grasp at any straw to try to salvage your "non-long", McD is not a fruitful one. Pnra may falter at some point. If it does, though, McD's performance will not be why and its problems hint at nothing bad happening at Panera. That said, the next 2-3 points will more likely be down IMHO; we have simply moved up a bit much. Longer term, I remain bullish.
        P.S. Due to a Yahoo problem I, formerly Hotpanera, am now Hotpanera2. Only the handle has changed.

    • Hope 36 holds, next support level around 32. Buy all you can under 30 if we see it.

 
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