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Panera Bread Company Message Board

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  • hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Dec 17, 2002 5:57 PM Flag

    You're seeing sympathy for MCD

    Mcd has been in trouble for years. As mentioned in today's WSJ, Pnra has had a small part in Mcd's problems by offering better and healthier food with much nicer ambience, to which baby boomers, among others have been attracted. There are many other causes of Mcd's problems, everything from cannibalization of certain stores and lousy food to a silly price war. While Mcd's has warned in 8 of the last 9 quarters, Pnra has done the opposite. But for the fact that Pnra had been up alot lately, I doubt that it would have gone down in sympathy with Mcd today. It generally has not gone down when Mcd or Yum warned in the past. The vast majority of people who go to Panera, would never or only rarely go to McDonalds. While I understand that you have to grasp at any straw to try to salvage your "non-long", McD is not a fruitful one. Pnra may falter at some point. If it does, though, McD's performance will not be why and its problems hint at nothing bad happening at Panera. That said, the next 2-3 points will more likely be down IMHO; we have simply moved up a bit much. Longer term, I remain bullish.
    P.S. Due to a Yahoo problem I, formerly Hotpanera, am now Hotpanera2. Only the handle has changed.

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    • Come on, spill the beans! "Due to a yahoo problem" is not good enough. We can all learn from what happened, just be truthful (and use the 3rd person)! Also, why not hotpanera1?!?

      I think you miss the fact that I agree that MCD and PNRA are not direct competitors. True at some price point differential, there is a 'substitution effect.' The differential is now bound to be greater than ever before, and that (IMO) makes it INEVITABLE that PNRA needs to be less complacent, and given the weakness in the economy will not be 'allowed' to charge as much as they want (or would like to). PNRA is not by any means 'cheap.' Whether customers will continue to pay a premium is open to debate. Heck, I think SBUX, KKD, CAKE and PFCB are in the same boat....Wouldn't want to own ANY of those either at similar (high) valuations....All JMHO.....Good luck to all........

      • 1 Reply to valuemonster_jurel
      • If you're looking for something sordid akin to your handle difficulties, I will disappoint. I had a computer problem and after fixing it Yahoo claimed not to recognize my I.D. I had to re-enter my data and choose a new I.D. and password. When I then tried to choose hotpanera as my handle, it said that that handle was already taken. I chose hotpanera2, frankly not even thinking that I could have chosen hotpanera1.
        I strongly disagree with the notion that there is any substitution effect between Mcd and Pnra. People who went to Pnra when Mcd charged $2, won't instead go to Mcd because they now only charge $1. The places are complete apples and oranges in terms of the menu, the atmosphere, the quality of the food, etc.

 
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