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Panera Bread Company Message Board

  • hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Jan 24, 2003 9:10 AM Flag

    Montana Mills

    KKD is acquiring Montana Mills. Is anybody familiar with how their stores compare to Panera?

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    • "I'm surprised you find R/R "awesome" right now. It's still got a way to go."

      -- True. But this is the time to TUNE INTO a stock/industry. When the growthies have driven it to da moon, and start to exit is when a stock is very susceptible to gap downs and other 'nice'/opportunistic events. Remember, the growthies don't know what they really buy, so when they start to exit, the corollary is that they don't know the value of what they sell -- perfect for moi......Which leads to.....

      "On the downside, it could affect my style of investing, because I do depend on a little bit of uptick in the beta to make money. You mean I might have to become a VALUE investor???????"

      -- Rhetorical question since VALUE investing is the ONLY way to go (in terms of making $$$, getting to the L-T portion of Schedule D, & actually less stress -- compared to the alternatives). PNRA now solidly moving in the 'right direction.' There is a shifting of holders going on right now, just hope it continues.....Trust me Shaich & Gang KNEW this day would come (& they have acted accordingly)....Good luck to all......

    • value,

      I got in on SONC at 19 and change (pre 3:2 split adjusted, right after 9/11/01), and got out at 28 and change (summer 2002). I hung on a few months too long, but again, this ain't a perfect science. I was able to visit a few locations immediately after 9/11, while I was in Nashville, and was impressed by the variety of the menu. I'm not a big fast-food fan, but they had some interesting items most of the fast food big boys (MCD, WEN, and BK) don't have - wider variety of ice cream and drinks, much more interesting sandwiches (the chicken toaster sandwich is great), and a better breakfast. I don't eat much of that stuff, but the people I saw at the locations I visited sure did - SONC is Panera for the NASCAR crowd.

      My issue with SONC is the sensitivity to weather. They live and die by it. Also, their stock price started to erode right around the WorldCom scam. I waited, but the writing was on the wall, so I let all of it go at once. Turned out to be the right move, but I left $4-5 on the table with that one.

      IRS not an issue - I mainly trade in my IRA account now. My wife and I need that for retirement. I'm 42 now; hopefully it will be a large enough pile by the time I'm pushing 50 (God-willing) I can leave the 8-to-5 crowd and freelance and really enjoy life.

      I'm surprised you find R/R "awesome" right now. It's still got a way to go. See what's going on over at PETM? That was the easiest call I've ever made. Every time it got to 20 the selling, especially the block trades, really picked up. You could see the stock being fed out. Now it just broke under 15 - I think it could run to 10 really fast (time then to buy again???). The weather is sooooooo cold right now in the east and south (and it sucks here in Ohio - people are staying home and making babies instead of trips to the store) that I'm sure it will have an impact on SSS #'s for many companies, especially those concentrated in the eastern half of the U.S. And unlike past years, people have the jitters with stocks, so they'll bail faster on a hint of bad news.

      Hey, see that MCD is joining SUNW and KO and will NOT provide interim guidance on their earnings??? Believe it or not, I *think* this is a good thing. They will continue to provide SSS #'s, and other similar quant info. I think what this will do is cool down the beta on stocks. On the downside, it could affect my style of investing, because I do depend on a little bit of uptick in the beta to make money. You mean I might have to become a VALUE investor???????

      Disclaimer: As always, IMHO. Position disclosure: Flat (all of the above)

      wsj

    • check'em out yourself before rushing to buy:
      NTZ
      ROFO
      NLS
      BKR
      MIMS
      EBF

      short 2000 each of PNRA, KKD, PFCB

    • I remember you posting on SONC, but to call you on it you state "I had a good run with it - got about 8 points out of it before it turned south." You never posted (from my memory) that you in fact sold it (personally I don't have a clue why anyone would pay more than $15 on SONC) and said so at the time. I'll leave that between you & the IRS. IMHO SONC is another cult stock. I would much rather own JBX, but I look forward to both getting hammered even lower from current levels.

      Your single digit comment on MCD is interesting, since I have felt MCD was worth no more than $10 at any point over the last 3+ years. If it hits single digits, barring a food poisoning scare, et al I'll be putting some money down. R/R is awesome now. There will be so many picks begging, it will be glorious. Just another day in the cycle!!!! So many peoples' 'history' in this sector is so short......Shaich & Gang know -- that's why they have been dumping en masse for such a long period of time (remember my first sell coincided with Shaich's -- only he had many more shares!!) Looking forward to egopuncture getting back on the board once PNRA really gets hammered. All JMHO. Good luck to all.....

    • value,

      MCD has been in trouble for years. In recent quarters, the problems are now magnified. The biggest clue for me was about 2 years ago on Navy Pier - Chicago. There I saw what should have been a home run for MCD - a complete prototype dessert bar that sold pricey offerings, but was very popular. SONC is making great $$$ selling high-margin desserts (their ADD-i-tude campaign is adding several cents per year to their bottom line - they charge, what, $0.15 for a SINGLE squirt of a flavoring to add to a slushy? And you can add 2 or 3 flavors together for $0.15 each?!); WHY couldn't MCD figure this out and roll it out into their thousands of outlets?

      Here's the rub - their new CEO (actually another MCD lifer, so I have low expectations) said he's not changing a thing - he will concentrate on improving the experience in every store. That's not going to be enough. You will be picking up MCD shares much further south than they are right now, mark my word. If they get in the mid single digits, they are well below NAV; that will be a buy to me.

      Disclaimer: As always, IMHO. Position disclosure: Flat (all of the above)

      wsj

      P.S. - Someone asked about SONC a while back on this board. I had a good run with it - got about 8 points out of it before it turned south. I think they're starting to run into the same crap that MCD is running into - plus they're dependent upon good weather (all are drive-ins). The SE U.S. is being hammered with cold temps. SONC has several locations in the south and SE, so I expect their present quarter to be weaker than last year. That, coupled with the fallout of the retail and restaurant sectors, doesn't paint a pretty picture for SONC. On the other side, SONC has held up well. But, as many have read from me here and on other retail/restaurant (I'm calling them R/R from now on to save typing time) boards, these two areas are now hurting, and are falling in favor, fast!

    • I do not assume that a takeover candidate needs to be public. Just like St. Louis Bread was a closely held company, there are many potential candidates. The trick is to find a gem in a local area that can be duplicated on a larger scale. The fact that you think that valuations of public companies are high, has nothing to do with Ron's ability to find such small gem.

    • If this isn't one of those clear signs of a tiop, I don't know what is!!! What an absolutely dumb deal for KKD!!! IMO, it's a complete admission from KKD that they need to grow elsewhere in order to maintain their horrendously large multiple the idiots (i.e. so-called 'investors') have place on KKD stock. The whole food sector (sit down, fast casual, fast food, & specialty food) is rolling over. If one can't 'see it,' or 'feel it' IMHO it's time to give your funds to 'managed money' (of course the problem with this is that they are likely to be idiots & charge one an arm & a leg for their 'service.') Good luck to all...... Things are getting mighty interesting......

      • 1 Reply to valuemonster_jurel
      • I have no knowledge about the specific deal. However, I strongly disagree that, as a general matter, buying another concept is an admission of serious problems with the existing business. Hedging one's bets is not a bad idea. Moreover, there can be synergies. If KKD can bring good bread into its stores for take-out, it could be very profitable since the fixed costs of the stores are already paid for. Nor would bread compete very much with donuts. That is not to say that it will work. But the purchase IMHO indicates nothing negative about the existing KKD (which I've never owned or shorted). I have said a number of times that I expect Pnra to buy another concept relatively soon with stock. If that occurs, you will undoubtedly view it as a negative, regardless of price or concept. IMHO, that would be a mistake. I can imagine various concepts (e.g., tossed salads, frozen desserts) that could not only be successful on their own, but could also complement the Pnra menu. That is not to say that any acquisition would be a positive. The question is whether one trusts management to get it right.

 
PNRA
161.54+2.56(+1.61%)Feb 26 4:00 PMEST

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