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Panera Bread Company Message Board

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  • wallstreet_jim wallstreet_jim Jan 25, 2003 12:28 AM Flag

    Montana Mills

    value,

    I got in on SONC at 19 and change (pre 3:2 split adjusted, right after 9/11/01), and got out at 28 and change (summer 2002). I hung on a few months too long, but again, this ain't a perfect science. I was able to visit a few locations immediately after 9/11, while I was in Nashville, and was impressed by the variety of the menu. I'm not a big fast-food fan, but they had some interesting items most of the fast food big boys (MCD, WEN, and BK) don't have - wider variety of ice cream and drinks, much more interesting sandwiches (the chicken toaster sandwich is great), and a better breakfast. I don't eat much of that stuff, but the people I saw at the locations I visited sure did - SONC is Panera for the NASCAR crowd.

    My issue with SONC is the sensitivity to weather. They live and die by it. Also, their stock price started to erode right around the WorldCom scam. I waited, but the writing was on the wall, so I let all of it go at once. Turned out to be the right move, but I left $4-5 on the table with that one.

    IRS not an issue - I mainly trade in my IRA account now. My wife and I need that for retirement. I'm 42 now; hopefully it will be a large enough pile by the time I'm pushing 50 (God-willing) I can leave the 8-to-5 crowd and freelance and really enjoy life.

    I'm surprised you find R/R "awesome" right now. It's still got a way to go. See what's going on over at PETM? That was the easiest call I've ever made. Every time it got to 20 the selling, especially the block trades, really picked up. You could see the stock being fed out. Now it just broke under 15 - I think it could run to 10 really fast (time then to buy again???). The weather is sooooooo cold right now in the east and south (and it sucks here in Ohio - people are staying home and making babies instead of trips to the store) that I'm sure it will have an impact on SSS #'s for many companies, especially those concentrated in the eastern half of the U.S. And unlike past years, people have the jitters with stocks, so they'll bail faster on a hint of bad news.

    Hey, see that MCD is joining SUNW and KO and will NOT provide interim guidance on their earnings??? Believe it or not, I *think* this is a good thing. They will continue to provide SSS #'s, and other similar quant info. I think what this will do is cool down the beta on stocks. On the downside, it could affect my style of investing, because I do depend on a little bit of uptick in the beta to make money. You mean I might have to become a VALUE investor???????

    Disclaimer: As always, IMHO. Position disclosure: Flat (all of the above)

    wsj

 
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