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Panera Bread Company Message Board

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  • hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Jan 30, 2003 8:57 AM Flag

    Too many questions

    Fresh, you've become a permabear on Pnra. I know that you did very well with it until a couple of years ago and sold out much too early. Reminds me of Valuemonster/Jurel. I guess it's understandable when you don't get a further big gain that you adopt a large bias against the longs. That said, your prediction of 20 is absurd. I, myself, predicted the decline to the low 30s several weeks ago. (I say this only so that it's clear that I'm not a cheerleader at any price) Now,I think the stock is presently fairly valued until earnings. Ron will explain the Moreton departure satisfactorily on the conference call. Until then, those looking to get into the stock will likely have a buying opportunity as the rumor mongerers do their thing. The growth story will remain impressive for at least 2-3 years.

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    • permabear nothing. Fresh actually saw the light, exercised some DISCIPLINE, and you want to skewer him. "Selling out much too early," is an extremely nice 20/20 HINDSIGHT comment. Even I have been amazed that the mighty mo' momentum idiots could have taken it this far. I know of one fund in L.A. (saw the mgr on TV)who made this stock their soup de jour and loaded up --- and has the outstanding numbers to show for it. Unfortunately those numbers are heading in the opposite direction, and all I can say is it's about time! With the limited float this stock has been a dream for those who buy high, and sell higher (I however, like to buy low and sell high -- the sky-high part is the one thing I missed). However, never underestimate the power of going 'non-long.' I have kept my sanity (a key part of investing) and more than held my own. Looking forward to more of a return to true value.....Good luck to all.....

    • A permabear? That's a new one for me. As you know, I made a small fortune going long in Panera stock, I got in years ago when it was Au Bon Pain for prices as low as $6 per share (pre split) and sold all my holdings with the last bit going at $33 late last year. Nevertheless, unlike you, I am not blind to the great danger for this company on the down side. No matter what gets posted which is negative about the company (assuming it is rational) you have always responded with some lame defense. That, of course, was until recently when we learned that the earnings really arose from the deaths of the employees.

      I can only say this. I know that you have followed this stock as long as I have. Why would you care what Ron Schaich says on the conference call about Moreton? Would you believe him? Do you remember his statements at the last shareholders meeting before Au Bon Pain was sold off? If he is as straightforward now as he was then, I suggest you sell off all of your holdings immediately. Remember, Panera is just a company, it is not a member of your family. You really need to move beyond the emotion and see this company for what it is -- a major growth story whose growth is slowing and slowing and slowing. If the story is also phony due to earnings from insurance proceeds or other games, the market will exact swift and terrible punishment. It's your money and you have been warned. Now you will need to try to behave rationally and not emotionally.

      PS -- I would call you a permabull, but I think that bull better describes what you write about Panera.

      • 2 Replies to freshbread4u
      • By far one of the absolute BEST posts I have read on the PNRA board in a long while. Congratulations on your continued 'flexibility,' and ability to see true value from the 'fluff.' Some are 'blind,' and continue to be so. Some 'see' & you are definitely in that category. Wishing you continued success in ALL of your endeavors.....Good luck to all...

      • Your attempt to distort is confirmed by your statement that "the earnings really arose from the death of employees". That is blatantly false and you know it. The footnote about the insurance program was discussed in detail on the board and it became clear that the COLI program had no meaningful effect on earnings. But why pass up the chance of another ad hominem attack? As you know, I questioned the last SSS report's justification for lower growth on this board and predicted a decline. You're speaking utter nonsense in trying to paint me as an apologist. Like you, this stock has been very good to me. The difference between us is that I still believe in the company's growth and have not completely sold, as you did. For that reason, I have an interest in rationally evaluating the stock. Your sole desire is to take pleasure in others losing due to false rumors. It's really sick.

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