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Panera Bread Company Message Board

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  • hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Feb 24, 2003 1:31 PM Flag

    Bad news compounds

    One would think from reading your post that I was predicting that Pnra will go to 40 by next Tuesday. Far from being overly optimistic, I said repeatedly that Pnra was overvalued at 37. Because I considered 30 to be a reasonable pivot point, I have been writing 30 calls for the last 6 months. Recently, I believe that the stock has declined more than is warranted by the recent news (Moreton, bad weather, slightly weaker SSS in last period). Accordingly, I bought the May 30 calls back for 1.00. I think Ron is likely to come up with good news tomorrow -- not to get the stock back to 37, but good for a few points which will allow me to again write calls at a better premium. If that's a blinding bull, guilty as charged. In reality, though, you have been very bearish for a long time. Thus far, while you may have profited on a recent short (I can't tell since you don't report your transactions in real time, indeed at all), the market has strongly disagreed with you as to some much lower "fair valuation" that you refuse to specify. I've been following this stock closely since 1995 and have learned 2 important lessons: first, don't ever count Ron out. He has a passionate desire to succeed not only for himself, but for his employees and shareholders.I was at an Au Bon Pain shareholder's meeting after the stock had declined to 7. Ron convinced me that day that he knew what to do to turn things around and that he would almost certainly succeed. Second, to ignore growth in your valuation metrics, as you always do, is to not be valuing a company properly. Pnra is not expensive at this price. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

181.60-0.20(-0.11%)Dec 1 4:00 PMEST