In your message you asked, "Look, it would be nice if you just posted under your original moniker. sOp ring any bells?!? "
My reply, "No, sOp does not chime any bells."
Subsequently you asked, "-- It's fine, as long as one has the 'correct outlook,' and a 'proper level of skepticism.' When I get excoriated for being "sour" on a stock at $12+, and then see it fall to sub-$4, is the person out there criticisng me willing to look in the mirror, and ADMIT to making a mistake? You know what I am talking about......
My reply, "No, I don't know what you are talking about...... since you believe you are talking about me."
The party to whom you refer would obviously not be me, in that I enjoy playing both sides of wide volatility swings. I am neither focused on the upside nor the downside. I welcome both. That way, my hills are money as opposed to beans. I also don't need to have so much "discipline" that I must have a stock go through the basement floor before I can invest. But I hold no malice for those who do. They do what they feel is best for them, and that is fine. The markets wouldn't work well if we all played it the same way.
"Correct outlook?" To me, that would be employing what works. Correct outlook is gaining an acceptable rate of return on one's money in real time.
As far as being nice? I never label anyone with a name such as "idiot."
Unlike some, your posts are thoughtful even if we often disagree. Your statement that Pnra is "piling the profits into the second half of the year in order to make expected numbers" is not accurate. Profits for Panera are always higher for the second half for at least 2 reasons. First, all of the stores opened in the first half contribute for the entire second half. Second, the 4th quarter is seasonally stronger because of the Christmas shopping season. Thus, in 2002, .31 of the .73 was earned in the first half and .42 in the second half. The 2003 projections are similarly weighted. Given the extremely negative weather comparisons in Q1 which is a very real temporary negative, my take is that the extreme decline in the stock reflected fear of a lowering of 2003 guidance. The fact that we didn't get that, coupled with IMHO a very strong conference call demonstrating that things are going extremely well, will soon get the stock back to at least 30.
Much as I hate to find myself in relative agreement concerning your recent PNRA purchase (since your interesting command of the Queen's English sometimes loses me), nevertheless, I believe you have the idea.
The price is roughly where it was one year ago. PNRA actually seems more to be in a sideways trading pattern. Say between 24 and 37. Pretty big spread by anyone's definition, which allows for big returns if one has the stomach for it. The action of the last six months would seem to bear that out. I won't further beat the dead horse as to why it is behaving as it is. Let it suffice to say that all the known factors have been "discussed." The story of this company, notwithstanding the naysayers, is still intact. Those who expect a breakdown below 23 will therefore be disappointed. Those who expect a breakout above 38 will also be disappointed for now, as the price is still ahead of the realized earnings. So the money to be made would seem to be accomplished by playing the sideways action. Complaining about the fact that the stock price isn't acting as it "should" is a waste of time. Enjoy the volatility and make money.
The only other thing which is of concern is the apparent weakness of consumer confidence, at least on paper. The fantastic car deals are being reduced which is impacting sales. While home buying continues because of great interest rates, there will be a reduction in sales in the months ahead. Then there is the war. It's a matter of when, not if. When it gets underway, the odds favor a short term rally. What happens next may well be disappointing. The bottom end of the trading range may well be tested and breached. My suggestion is to begin to sell into any rally which develops after the beginning of the hostilities. Forecasting beyond that is problematic. It will likely be useful to have some free cash.
I began to "nibble" on PNRA today at 25.43. I guess we are now in this together. In your colorful style,
Strong & Value & Fresh & Hot (the most recent posters I "value" the most; though I also appreciate the opinions of WSJ, Wrench, Endspeed and Coach),
I'm sorry that today brought out the "Hot" buttons that we all share in making "Strong" money at this "Wall Street" thing. We all want to make money at this, and we all want to be right. Our opinions about "Value" may differ, but we all want to make the right choices. The gloating that occurs when we choose correctly is childish, but unfortunately human. I really believe that all of you have really "Fresh" valid points and I honestly read your comments with interest. I believe that somewhere between our collective beliefs/hopes/fears lies the truth and future.
I look forward to more of your opinions, and trading with your thoughts in mind, in the future.
(apologies to coach,wrench, and endspeed for lacking the ability to work your ID's into my sentences)