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Panera Bread Company Message Board

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  • wallstreet_jim wallstreet_jim Mar 10, 2003 7:17 PM Flag

    Greenberg on PNRA


    No arguments from this camp. I see what's going on just as much as fresh does. Didn't you read my last post? Why get spanked when you don't have to? The consumer is tanked out. Hell, didn't you see the atom bomb that recently hit PETM? I saw that one coming months in advance, just by visiting the stores and talking with consumers. They were cutting back last August, and felt Fluffy and Fido could do without an extra toy or treat (and I posted as such on the PETM board - go look).

    FWIW, I still see PNRA doing fine. HOWEVER, they are running into factors beyond their control - a tapped-out consumer, widespread fear in the economy, and frankly, sh@$ty weather in the heart of the U.S. (and most of PNRA's markets) for almost 4 straight months (and I mean solid bad weather - this is the worst I can remember in about 20 years). I was just at an Olive Garden in Detroit last Wednesday night. Same story there. People still enjoying going out to eat, but cutting back on the wine and desserts. Wanna bet DRI SSS #'s go into the tank during the next few quarters? This pattern is going to repeat at most retail establishments over the next year or so.

    You've got this thing I'm a mindless long. I've been flat PNRA for over a year, with only a brief "buy" to take advantage of a short-term artificially low price, but that lasted only for about a couple weeks. FWIW, I can only wish to have one fourth of the soothsaying abilities you and freshbread have. With it, I'd be rich beyond my wildest dreams by now. But it makes me pause and wonder - if the two of you are doing so fabulously well, why do you still post here? Shouldn't you be off on your own private island, sipping fancy potent potables? Most people that I know that are independently wealthy do not participate in these forums - they spend their time on their investments, and spend the rest of their time enjoying life. I think they have it right.....

    Disclaimer: As always, IMHO. Position disclosure: Flat (PNRA, PETM, DRI)


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