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Panera Bread Company Message Board

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  • freshbread4u freshbread4u Mar 18, 2003 10:29 AM Flag

    Time to step back

    I take your point. 120 new locations is surely growth. Everyone, but the crazy shorts, can agree on that. The proper question, however, is whether it is growth at the same rate as in the past.

    Remember -- If PNRA has 120 new locations for each of the next two years with flat or slightly rising SSS, its earnings growth will slow substantially. IMO that will lead to a decline of the P/E ratio. In other words, it will still be growing, but it will no longer have its current "happy days are here again" kind of crazy valuation.

    Of course, if PNRA becomes like starbucks and growth accelerates to indicate that there may be 3000 or 4000 locations nationwide (not very likely IMO), then the valuation and P/E could rise.

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