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Panera Bread Company Message Board

  • DewDiligence DewDiligence Jun 16, 2003 12:51 PM Flag

    Just listened to the PNRA webcast�

     

    at the Weisel conference and thought it was one of the most hyped presentations I have heard.

    PNRA is a fine company and the restaurants are not bad. But the valuation is too darn high.

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    • I was referring to numerous posts in February, when Pnra was in the 25s, arguing that it was overvalued. These people have suffered large losses with their "non-long" positions and certainly have been wrong big time thus far. Yet, you won't find any less cockiness at 37 than they had at 25. I have never predicted that Pnra would go above the low 30s in the short term. Indeed, I have written covered calls with a 30 strike price and am surprised with its strength in light of a few poor SSS periods. However, I very much believe in the company and the stock long term. I also would not short a stock where more than 25% of the outstanding shares have been shorted. However, I understand the other side of that and would not be surprised if your recent short is profitable over the next few months.

    • Perhaps it is YOU who is related to the former Iraqi minister of information. Your cut and paste job confirms what I said. Ron has sold no shares since February. In February he BOUGHT 200,000 shares. Yes, he exercised options to make the purchase. But despite being hit with a major tax bill (fair market value less exercise price), he didn't sell a single share of the 200k shares, now worth about $7,500,000. That's on top of about 80 million dollars of Pnra stock he otherwise owns. Yes, Ron sold about 20 million dollars worth of stock in 2001-02. He diversified his holdings and would have been nuts not to. His sales, though, hardly portended a top in the stock. Moreover, anyone who says he has been selling since February or that his purchase doesn't count because he exercised options is either completely mis-informed or intentionally trying to mislead others.

    • Damn Sartre - you're a genius. You can click on insider and copy/paste. Why don't you quit wasting electrons and simply refer to the link?
      The only thing this data shows is that management is smart enuff to exercise options and make $$$. As far as what it means for the LT is 0.

    • By: hotpanera2
      Date: 06/16/03 06:02 pm

      It has become a broken record as the facts continue to prove them increasingly wrong. Stubborness is tough to overcome. Ron BOUGHT shares in February


      >>> Really?

      Would you by chance be related to the Iraqi Minister of Information, who recently insisted the American's were on the run?

      Here are the latest Insider Sells and Options exercises: No purchases BTW:


      2003-05-28 GIAIMO, ROBERT T.
      Director 23,862 Option Exercise at $8.469 - $15.995 per share.
      2003-05-28 GIAIMO, ROBERT T.
      Director 23,862 Sale at $35 per share.
      (Proceeds of $835,170)
      2003-05-28 GIAIMO, ROBERT T.
      Director 23,862 Planned Sale
      (Estimated proceeds of $823,240)
      2003-03-25 -
      2003-03-28 HOOD, MARK E.
      Senior Vice President *50 Purchase at $30.59 - $31.65 per share.
      (Cost of about $1,555)
      2003-03-11 COLASACCO, DOMENIC
      Director 5,000 Option Exercise at $3.907 per share.
      (Cost of $19,535)
      2003-03-11 COLASACCO, DOMENIC
      Director 5,000 Planned Sale
      (Estimated proceeds of $130,000)
      2003-03-11 COLASACCO, DOMENIC
      Director 5,000 Sale at $25.95 per share.
      (Proceeds of $129,750)
      2003-02-19 SHAICH, RONALD M.
      Chairman 200,000 Option Exercise at $3.75 per share.
      (Cost of $750,000)
      2003-01-28 SHAICH, RONALD M.
      Chairman 5,000 Option Exercise
      2003-01-28 SHAICH, RONALD M.
      Chairman *5,000 Automatic Sale at $31 per share.
      (Proceeds of $155,000)
      2003-01-14 SHAICH, RONALD M.
      Chairman *5,000 Automatic Sale at $37.50 per share.
      (Proceeds of $187,500)
      2003-01-14 SHAICH, RONALD M.
      Chairman *5,000 Acquisition (Non Open Market)
      2003-01-14 SHAICH, RONALD M.
      Chief Executive Officer 10,000 Planned Sale
      (Estimated proceeds of $375,000)
      2003-01-10 SHAICH, RONALD M.
      Chief Executive Officer 10,000 Planned Sale
      (Estimated proceeds of $369,400)
      2003-01-10 SHAICH, RONALD M.
      Chairman 15,000 Acquisition (Non Open Market)
      2003-01-10 SHAICH, RONALD M.
      Chairman 15,000 Sale at $36.794 per share.
      (Proceeds of $551,910)
      2003-01-08 TWOHIG, PAUL
      Chief Operating Officer 1,000 Statement of Ownership
      2003-01-07 KANE, GEORGE E.
      Director 4,500 Disposition (Non Open Market)
      2003-01-06 SHAICH, RONALD M.
      Chairman *5,000 Automatic Sale at $36.25 per share.
      (Proceeds of $181,250)
      2003-01-06 SHAICH, RONALD M.
      Chairman *5,000 Acquisition (Non Open Market)
      2002-12-16 SHAICH, RONALD M.
      Chairman 5,000 Acquisition (Non Open Market)
      2002-12-16 SHAICH, RONALD M.
      Chairman *5,000 Sale at $37 per share.
      (Proceeds of $185,000)
      2002-12-12 SHAICH, RONALD M.
      Chairman 5,000 Option Exercise
      2002-12-12 SHAICH, RONALD M.
      Chairman *5,000 Sale at $36.25 per share.
      (Proceeds of $181,250)
      2002-12-11 SHAICH, RONALD M.
      Chairman *5,000 Automatic Sale at $36 per share.
      (Proceeds of $180,000)
      2002-12-11 SHAICH, RONALD M.
      Chairman 5,000 Acquisition (Non Open Market)
      2002-12-11 SHAICH, RONALD M.
      Chief Executive Officer 10,000 Planned Sale
      (Estimated proceeds of $359,500)

    • "You're right on. I don't consider Ron's projection today to be at all unexpected, or pie in the sky.."

      -- Considering it was done at the Weisel Conference, maybe (hey, the 'world' is differnt now, you know).....But come on PNRA needs 30%+ to be sustainable for more that 3-5 years for the stock to justify its current enterprise value (JMO). Yes, memories are short, and the mighty mo' momentum idiots can take her anywhere in the short run, but come on unless one has a heck of a lot of underpriced options or is a real speculative gambler (yes, IMO it's possible), one has to take the RISK side fo the equation into account.....Let me guess, hotpanera, you'd say there is no risk....LOL.....

      "Stubborness is tough to overcome."

      -- Yes it is, but can you honestly look at the Insider section of Yahoo, and not feel the stubborn-shoe isn't on your foot? Good luck to all....

    • You're right on. I don't consider Ron's projection today to be at all unexpected, or pie in the sky.. Given the schedule of store openings and the other factors previously discussed to raise sales and margins, a 30% average increase in EPS for the next 3-5 years sounds about right, assuming nothing seriously wrong happens. I can tell from the posts and recommendations that this board has become largely inhabited by the shorts who keep watching the stock rise and can only say "it was overvalued 10 points ago, so it's really overvalued now." It has become a broken record as the facts continue to prove them increasingly wrong. Stubborness is tough to overcome. Ron BOUGHT shares in February and hasn't sold a share since. However, that broken record, too, continues to be on their turntable.

    • Bookmark your own post and look back in a year or two. You make an excellent case for 'relative valuation' and bubble-logic. I saw the exact same stuff describing SUNW, MSFT, DELL, and I'm not even mentioning the real .bomb crap.

      "Averaging 30% increase in earnings for say four years could easily occur. Even if the first years' earnings increase would lower to 33%, the next 3 years could be 31%, 29% and 27% to achieve a four year 30% average.
      Of course there is hype in presenting Panera to mutual funds, but the numbers are very believable-to me they are as likely understated as overstated."

      -- Yeowza. Watch your wallet!!! I say this in the most positive, helpful light possible....Good luck to all....

    • I am surprised at your take. The presentation had very little b.s. Essentially everything was backed up with numbers. The one exception is an important projection which I hadn't heard before. Whether it is likely to occur goes to the heart of all of the disputes I have had with Freshbread about future growth. Ron predicted that over the next 3-5 years store count will grow 20% per year and earnings will grow 30% per year. The extra 10% is a combination of increased margins and increased sales.
      Interestingly, when the moderator began the presentation by reciting the increase in Pnra's stock price over the last 3 years, Ron responded that such recitation of the past was really not of much moment. The question is whether Pnra can continue strong growth. He obviously believes that it can.

 
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