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Panera Bread Company Message Board

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  • hateconartists hateconartists Jun 1, 2005 11:21 AM Flag

    N. Calif Expansion vs. Shorts

    You are probably right. Overvalue stock will not go down simply because there are a lot of shorts.

    This kind of stock usually lingers for 2 even 3 quarters before the plunge comes. (Otherwise how can the manipulators unload to make their profit)?

    It is extremely difficult to catch the top. Just like the longs usually miss the bottom of good stocks.

    Of all the stocks I shorted, I was just got lucky once - PCLE plunged $18 on the second day after I shorted it. For the others, it all took a little time.

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    • Looks like many longs are selling and locking in profits....good for them.

      Greed will cost you $$$ at the top.

      Shorts continue to add.

      Higher supply volume, fewer trades but larger size.

      Ceiling and triple top @ 63.97
      HUGE supply there on Level II
      The T/A guys are trading accordingly.

      Long way until 2009 for the Calif. expansion.

      2 Valuation Downgrades coming by Friday !!

      • 2 Replies to aqua_martini
      • aqua:

        Let me venture a little advice: Be prepare that the overvaluation will extend into the coming quarter.

        You probably noticed that there was no addition of company owned stores nor franchisee stores in the 1st quarter of 2005. This was because the 16.2 week 1st quarter's result gave sufficient illusion of "growth".

        So the start of 17 company stores and 15 franchisee stores all "WAITED" until the 2nd quarter, again for giving the illusion of "growth".

        One good sign, though, is that this moves is yet one more confirmation that PNRA is a "grown" (as against "growth") stock. (Frankly, I cannot see how selling bread can be compared to any of the growth industry.)

        It is foolish to short a genuine growth stock, but there is plenty of money to be made to short a "grown" stock.

      • Sorry, I know very little about those things that you talked about : like "many longs selling" or "shorts continue to add". I don't know why specifically "2 valuation downgrades coming by Friday" because I am not acquainted with any analysts. (As a matter of fact, I detest most of them).

        I shorted NOT for trading profits of a buck or two.

        By the way, have you thought about how you would react if, God forbid, they successfully mounted a squeeze?

 
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