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Panera Bread Company Message Board

  • valuemonster_jurel valuemonster_jurel Aug 23, 2005 1:22 PM Flag

    Wow. Another Bloated SSS figure.......

    Hope fresh sold on the pop.....Good luck to all.....

    BTW, just wait until higher gas prices eat into the bloated fast-casual concepts horrendously high valuations. It's a comin......Can't ya feel it?!? Good luck to all.....

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    • Interesting that you should hope that I sold.

      Actually, I wrote the November 55 calls for 4.80. If the stock goes way up (unlikely IMO), I still have a rate of return of over 50% (annualized) on the investment. If it goes back down, I get to keep my option proceeds. On a cash on cash basis, the call premium alone is at nearly a 30% rate. I'm happy with that.

      i do not think there is much downside risk beyond 50.

    • Guidance in the earnings p/r was systemwide comp sales growth of 8.3% to 8.8%.

      Given that the release date was Aug 9th, which corresponds exactly to the end of the comp store period, I would guess that management had a pretty good handle on company store comps, which turned out to be 8.2%. This implies (assuming guidance wasn't lowballed) that franchisee comps were expected to be 8.5% to 9.0%. Given that franchisee comps were 9.1% and using the implied midpoint of franchisee comps, it looks like the outperformance was about 0.35% for franchisees.

      What does a 0.35% outperformance for franchisees mean to the bottom line of pnra (assuming they can sustain it for the whole quarter)?

      Franchise royalties and fees were $12.1 million during the last quarter. 0.35% of $12.1 million

      =>

      pre-tax net income will be $42,350 higher than what would be inferred by the Aug 9 p/r.

      After tax, this is about $27,500.

      With about 30 million shares outstanding, this represents a little less than 0.1 cents in eps.

    • yeah right, gas is sooo expensive I am going to start only hitting up McDonalds for lunch on tuesdays and fridays for the dollar nuggets and fish sands.
      PNRA is here to grow and stay.
      been long since 1999... do the math

 
PNRA
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