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Panera Bread Company Message Board

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  • re_think_it re_think_it Mar 3, 2006 11:17 PM Flag

    A mindless long's story..

    Mr. Bread,

    It is a nice tale, but you'll pardon me for being a bit skeptical. Approximately 5 years ago, PNRA was roughly trading at $11/share, adjusted. At that price, 1000 share blocks were trading at a cost of $11,000. In February, 2001, the trading volume was often well below 100,000 shares per day; but we won't muddy the H2O with what that may imply.

    It is interesting to note that you were picking up change at McDs to buy more PNRA. Tell us, how large an investment portfolio did you carry to permit this purchasing of a "boat load" of 1,000 share blocks? To permit all those college educations? To permit all those diamonds? To permit retiring? To still have a remainder of a "boat load" of shares? My, you WERE successful weren't you? All on the PNRA breadwagon.

    To quote,
    <It's just bread and being 'mindless'. What a great country we live in. What a great company this is..> and what a great storyteller you are.

    Enjoy the Game.

    ReThink It

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    • His story may not be true for him but I am positive it is true for someone else.

      • 2 Replies to endspeed
      • You are absolutely right. The story is true for the stock growers who pumped up the stock and sold to the retail longs.

        They can truly claim that they draped their mrs with diamonds, able to retire rich and are still left with truch load of the overvalue papers.

      • Yeah, for someone like Ron Shaich.

        I actually was long ABPCA at a $50M market cap (bought at that market cap). Started selling when Shaich did at $250M and was out by $500M only to see her hit the Kahuna stage and now she's North of $2B. Non-longed it along the way to success, but wasn't a 'mindless long' and can't retire on the PNRA freight train. :( That's discipline for ya.......Good luck to all....

    • "In February, 2001, the trading volume was often well below 100,000 shares per day;

      Well, you're sort of right Mr. re-think; in fact, back then the trading volume was often below 10,000 shares daily. The average daily volume was around 10k. My purchases (all prices pre-split) were in the $10 3/8 - $10 7/8 range with an average of about $10 5/8. The last couple of thousand were around $12. Share prices were incremented by 1/8's then and it wasn't so hard to pick up lots of a thousand shares without driving the price higher by more than 1/8-3/8. If you followed this company earlier than when I found it, you knew it was trading in the $6 range just months earlier. At the time, sellers seemed happy to part with their shares as the performance of ABP had been dismal.

      As for my investment portfolio size, you don't really need to know that. PNRA has been roughly a 14 bagger since then so let's figure an example of 20k shares then would be worth close to $3 million today, for those who were held on.

      Enjoy your weekend and have a nice day at work Monday. Mr. Bread

      • 1 Reply to got_bread
      • Mr. Bread,

        You'll pardon the difficulty of accepting such a fine tale on its face. Yes, we can both do simple math. I understood the theory. The difficulty is in the idea that someone, not an owner, would commit to such a large position, through both ups and downs. But if that's your story, you stick to it.

        Thanks for the well wishes for a nice day in my consulting work. My boss also thanks you. That would be me. You see, I have already retired from one situation. Real estate has been very rewarding. I'll leave the late comers to the party, whether it is real estate or equities, to deal with the next downturn. If you have done any research on the economy, you would note, as I have, that among other issues and on top of the problems, the small investor is coming back in droves. That is never a good sign for the future.

        You have a nice day on Monday, as well. I'll look forward to your next tale. We can add this one to all the others who claim perfection in their investments, well after the fact. This one, complete with a "boat load" of shares left after all those expenses and the funding your retirement; not to mention that you obviously made no other missteps which could have reduced your nest egg, was extremely entertaining. No thanks, I'm not interested in the Brooklyn Bridge. I sold it last week to someone else.

        Enjoy the Game.

        ReThink It

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