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Panera Bread Company Message Board

  • got_bread got_bread Sep 29, 2006 1:03 PM Flag

    All this about sandwiches at Sbux...

    For all this breakfast sandwich talk about the NYC Starbucks, there will be no impact to Panera as Panera has no units in NYC.

    Of interest, when a new Panera opened less than 1/2 mile from an established, VERY busy Starbucks in a western Ohio 'burb, the Starbucks business dropped by about 1/3.

    In the short run, I cannot see how this sbux breakfast stuff helps the pnra short case. It's a noteworthy development for sbux, but we need some weekly data to draw more accurate conclusions.

    Good luck to all.

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    • gotta_do_better_then_that gotta_do_better_then_that Oct 1, 2006 10:23 PM Flag

      <<<Number one, how you responded to my challenge of your claim to know the owner of three Panera units was totally out of character for someone who has been posting and counter-posting almost constantly for the last few weeks.>>>

      You're insane, no really, your off your rocker. During the week while I am trading I check the different boards often. On the weekend I'll check here and there and sometimes not at all. What's your point?

      <<<First you waited, then you said you didn't have time to respond because you were "heading out the door," then you waited another night>>>

      I am sorry I didn't respond to your post on your time frame, psycho. Did you notice in all of your detective work that my last post on Friday was a little after the close? Your post was later. Did you also realize, Magnum PI, that my post were done in order on Sat. night and were quick responses while I waited for my wife to finish getting ready to go out to dinner with friends? I don't have a clue as why I am even responding to your stupidity, I guess it's just entertaining. You are truly a tool.

      <<<First you waited, then you said you didn't have time to respond because you were "heading out the door," then you waited another night, and finally your explanation was pure dog-ate-my-homework gibberish. On this matter, Gotta, it's very simple: CUT THE CRAP.>>

      First this then that, then this, oh no then that. Do you ever proof read your insanity? Get back on those meds cause your conspiracy theory about everyone that has an opposing thought is pathetic. Instead of trying to figure out the reasoning behind people's post, do some DD on the stock and come up with some valid facts, points or even opinion about the stock and rebut the facts you don't like.


      <<<But your saying so is part of long-standing pattern wherein a certain kind of bearish Panera poster tries to reposition himself as brave and contrarian where he is no such thing.>>>

      Again with the conspiracy theory about folks that share a valid stance that differs from yours. You are obsessed with this, it seems to be a constant in the majority of your post. Maybe you should hang up investing and write a book about conspiracy theories on Internet message boards or the behavior of posters who share a different stance.

      <<<< But that same logic doesn't apply to any other company because they have a business that can overcome it in our dynamic economy. Not even the usual run of bear/short on this board believes that -- that the world is crashing in on Panera, which has no defenses, while others can hold up. I'm sorry, but this is a direct consequence of your failed behavior on this board,>>>

      I never once even implied that other companies would not be effected by what's going on in the economy. So once again your reading comprehension let you down and you're responding to something I've never posted.

      <<<I'm sorry, but it is now proven without a doubt: When you behave that way, eventually you screw up. BTW, I did not "attempt to discredit" you. You did that perfectly well on your own.>>>

      What was proven? That you rant and rant and rant and pretty much say nothing that's relevant to PNRA.

      Like I've asked time and time again, what are the positive you keep alluding too and why have you yet to post them? Because there aren't any? At least try to come up with something besides theories on why people post what they post.

      <<<I'm done with you on this thread but I reserve the right to respond on others as necessary and appropriate.>>>

      Noted. LOL

    • Three points.

      Number one, how you responded to my challenge of your claim to know the owner of three Panera units was totally out of character for someone who has been posting and counter-posting almost constantly for the last few weeks. First you waited, then you said you didn't have time to respond because you were "heading out the door," then you waited another night, and finally your explanation was pure dog-ate-my-homework gibberish. On this matter, Gotta, it's very simple: CUT THE CRAP.

      Number two, your characterization of the history of this board as a free playground for longs (which is your rationalization for posting so much) is obviously and absurdly inaccurate. But your saying so is part of long-standing pattern wherein a certain kind of bearish Panera poster tries to reposition himself as brave and contrarian where he is no such thing.

      Number three, on the substantive point, not only this response but others in this series (look at the one right before your last response to mine) simply continues your total methodological inconsistency. Every problem, event, data point, whatever, whether it's a mortgage statistic, a competitor's breakfast sandwich, a batch of bad spinach, or anything, results in a dollar-for-dollar penalty at Panera. But that same logic doesn't apply to any other company because they have a business that can overcome it in our dynamic economy. Not even the usual run of bear/short on this board believes that -- that the world is crashing in on Panera, which has no defenses, while others can hold up. I'm sorry, but this is a direct consequence of your failed behavior on this board, whereby you convert any change in a statistic to "lower sales" or "lower traffic" at Panera (completely false) and your belief that if you just keep posting and posting, eventually it will stick. I'm sorry, but it is now proven without a doubt: When you behave that way, eventually you screw up. BTW, I did not "attempt to discredit" you. You did that perfectly well on your own.

      I'm done with you on this thread but I reserve the right to respond on others as necessary and appropriate.

    • gotta_do_better_then_that gotta_do_better_then_that Sep 29, 2006 2:08 PM Flag

      Similar breakfast fare has been slowly appearing in other urban U.S. markets in what has been viewed as a measured expansion of its business.

      NY City is not just the city itself. My understanding is the NYC area which includes locations outside of just the city. They also started this at other location already and a hard a test market run which was "highly successful". This will have a direct impact on PNRA. One of the biggest complaints about SBUX is they different offer this so people went elsewhere.

      <<<In the short run, I cannot see how this sbux breakfast stuff helps the pnra short case.>>>

      The breakfast competition is only one factor. If they go ahead with an offering for the lunch time crowd, it could substantially cutting into PNRA's revenues. SBUX has been looking to attract more of a afternoon crowd, this fits right into their goal. Don't play naive.

      It's true only time will tell but it's a major competitive issue on an already very richly priced stock. It could have a significant impact on PNRA forward earnings.

      On a side note that Cripani flat bread pizza is hugely underperfoming expectation.

      • 2 Replies to gotta_do_better_then_that
      • Oh don't fret about me being naive, though I thank you for your reminder to be objective. Most NYC sbux units are holes in the wall and not at all condusive to the sit down crowd. And there will be NO NYC impact to PNRA. But I will reserve judgement on the PNRA impact of SBUX breakfast when more data is available and SBUX is national with their Buck'muffin.

        I have a family member who is a supervisor for SBUX and the opinion there is .. it's going to slow things WAAAAAAAAAY down.

        So... being the not naive person you hope, the stock with the truly lofty premium/valuation here is .. the buck. And therein may lie the best 'opportunity'.

        The only news worthy event (we know of) that is going to directly impact PNRA's stock price in the VERY short term, is next week's SSS number. A disaster there and the PUT holders will be happy. An'ok' number will (excuse the expression) .. put.. more pressure on the PUT holders.

        Just opinion. Good luck...

      • Your m.o. is transparent: to grossly exaggerate and assume every potential negative will come to pass and to ignore every existing positive. Plus, you lie as already documented. Your statements about crispani are flat out false. "Highest premium" is just a lie. Sbux's growth rate is lower and PE much, much higher.

        As for Sbux, most of their locations are too small to realistically do a lunch business. They have had lousy pastries for years and I doubt they'll ever do better with much more complicated sandwiches which require high quality, fresh bread in many varieties. Unless very close to a Pnra, Sbux is not really competition for lunch. People won't drive 2 or 3 miles to get a Sbux sandwich if they work near Pnra. But to you none of this matters. You just want to scare people. It hasn't worked for the last 5 years and good things are happening to continue Pnra's strong growth. You will find out that you chose the wrong stock to short.

 
PNRA
143.35-2.28(-1.57%)Jul 25 3:59 PMEDT

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