The retracement underway of the 46.85/68.70 leg has normal retracement value targets, using 38%,50% and 62%, of 50.40, 57.78, and 55.16. If 55.16 gets taken out, than 46.85 will be tested.
Now take a look at the larger cycle leg of 67.50/46.85. The high of 67.50 was recently taken out at 68.70. This says that a higher high has taken place and if this retracement stops short of 46.85, a higher low will spell out uptrend started on the larger cycle. Given this recent higher high in the larger cycle and the time of the year, I expect only a normal retracement now taking place. For these reasons I'm not shorting this retracement, just watching for the turnup.