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Intuit, Inc. (INTU) Message Board

  • Phantom_Shark Phantom_Shark Jan 6, 2004 12:25 PM Flag

    Found the rebates

    intuitrebates . com

    They've just made it a lot more complicated. Looks like they are doing variable rebates depending on where you purchased the product. So for example Staples has a $15 gift card good at Staples. Costco has a different rebate, and so on.

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    • "A considerate short. It's almost, well, it actually is paradox."

      Why is that? Both shorts and longs move the market by buying and selling, just in a different order. Shorts are not inherently evil. I don;t care which direction I'm playing as long as it's the right one. :)

      "Remember, they raised guidance in November and they surely knew they were going to make management changes at that time."

      Check the site and read the 2003 Q2 earnings, and then the warning shortly after (about a month from memory). Surely they knew then, right? Same logic, and it doesn't follow IMO. And it's not the management change that concerns me. It's the REASON for it. Also, do you really think they knew about the shipping/production issues before it happened? I doubt it.

      "giving sales updates every two weeks would seem to be a fairly bullish sign."

      Why? I can think of other possibilities.

      "P.S. you answered that post so fast it was spooky."

      Aww, busted using my ESP again. Drat!

    • Thank you for your concern. Really. A considerate short. It's almost, well, it actually is paradox.

      Remember, they raised guidance in November and they surely knew they were going to make management changes at that time. And one more thing to ponder... giving sales updates every two weeks would seem to be a fairly bullish sign.

      Personally, I'll keep my 2 shares and buy 2 more if it goes lower.

      P.S. you answered that post so fast it was spooky.

    • Could be. INTU is not a typical stock IMO. 90% of the float is institutionally held. They don't move quickly, and I'm not sure they tend to think along the same lines as individual investors (i.e. "bargain hunters").

      It is actually showing more weakness than I expected. I thought it would be back over $48 by now - at least by the close anyway.

    • I am never sure of anything when it comes to the stock market but bargain hunters usually appear after 3 down days. And a drop from 52+ to sub 48 is a pretty healthy 4 day drop in an up market.

      I don't know if you really believe next week's date has any real significance to an investor. Most people aren't running out at Christmas time to buy TT. The first few reporting numbers are not all that significant in my mind.

    • Depends. Are you sure there won't be a 4th? It has dropped but not all that far.

      Right now I still see heavy volume, downward trend intact, potential trigger date near.

      At any rate, I expect I may be in and out of INTU a lot over the next few months. I'll probably be reading the forum, regardless of whether I have a current position or not.

    • So after 3 down days a short term trader such as yourself ought to be covering this afternoon.

    • See earlier post for plenty of reasons (I listed 7 I think).

      As far as this report, the shipping/production issues will impact the first set of numbers. I verified first hand TT was not available anywhere I could find in my towm (capital of MI) until after Xmas.

      Apparently I'm not the only one concerned (see 3 straight down days - down hard today on market up day)

    • HOw do you make this assumption:

      "Not only are there plenty of indications they may miss their TT sales expectations (especially this report)"

    • "My guess it that shorts might not want to be caught in a squeeze on the 15th if numbers are good, though some might not be aware of it ... that could make some pretty interesting trading action on this stock for those days."

      Personally I'd be one heck of a lot more concerned about being long. Not only are there plenty of indications they may miss their TT sales expectations (especially this report), go see March of last year where they warned for a 30% one day haircut. Then find me ANY comparable one day rise for this stock.

      I see the upside from that news at MAYBE up to 5% - and the downside possibility at up to 30%. I like that kind of risk vs. reward - especially when there are so many negative indicators.

      NO WAY would I be caught dead long in INTU on the 15th. Any position is a risk, but I sure like the chances short over long.

    • Go back and read the new release for the Q1 earnings.. .. in part it said that revenues were up (in a typically slow quarter.) I'm sure you understand the most companies have some revenue stream between the end of the Q and the reporting date where they can extrapolate out their expected revenue for the next Q. That's pretty basic. Add in a recovering economy and there you have it.

      As for TT being below plan, yes, it concerned me. That's why I was pretty surprised to see the stock rise 7 unanswered points. I also was NOT comforted to see the blurbs from Kudlow/Cramer on the trading action on this stock.

      My guess it that shorts might not want to be caught in a squeeze on the 15th if numbers are good, though some might not be aware of it ... that could make some pretty interesting trading action on this stock for those days.

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INTU
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