Let's face it, INTU owns and is continuing to accumulate key assets in new and growing technologies. They OWN the consumer financial sofrtware market. They OWN the consumer tax prep market. They are setting the standards for web-based money transferral in general. They continue to improve their influence in these areas. Their products are useful and easily purchased over the web, which I have done.
Yes I own the stock, no I do not work for INTU or have any priviledged info.
Can you point to some source of info on "quadruple top" formations? I've read several books on TA, including the classic "TA of Stock Trends", and haven't come across any mention of that formation. To me the chart looks pretty good ... there was a beautiful breakout of an Ascending Triangle in September, followed by a Pullback all the way to the bottom Trendline of the Triangle, followed by the current Rising Trend.
I'm currently reading "Market Wizards", an excellent book of interviews with the world's top traders. One of the interviews is with William O'Neil, publisher of Investor's Daily. In the interview he stresses that one of his key stock selection criteria involves picking stocks that are making new highs. He says ...
"Back in 1959, I did a study of the people that were doing very well in the market. At that time, the Dreyfus fund was a
very small fund, managing only about $15 million. Jack Dreyfus, who managed the fund, was doubling the results of all of his
competitors. So I got copies of their prospectus and quarterly reports and plotted on charts precisely where they had purchased each of
their stocks. There were over 100 of these securities and when I laid them out on a table, I made my first real discovery: Not
some, not most, but every single stock had been bought when it went to a new high price."
Later William lists 18 common investing mistakes. #10 states:
"Over 98 percent of the masses are afraid to buy a stock that is beginning to go into new high ground, pricewise. It just seems too high to them. Personal feelings and opinions are far less accurate than markets."
I've found myself in that 98% in more than one occasion, and later regretted it :)
Sounds like you must have missed the recent move
I'm sorry you did. But I posted that a quadruple top breakout was possible, and it happened in a big way on Wednesday.
I don't know why the lack of volume causes your hand wringing. It is likely the stock is consolidating the breakout before reaching new highs.
In a strong market, the best way to make a lot of money is to buy stocks making new highs. The strong get stronger, because those are the stocks in demand. Please study some basic technical analysis.
Your analysis is inconsistent. You bitch about a lack of upward movement. Then you turn around and preach against buying at a new high.
To anyone who has purchased this stock in the $40's Buffett would say "YOU PAID WAY TOO MUCH".
It is at its 52 week high, and will gradually slide down from here as evidenced from the lack of volume today on an overall bullish (especially for a Friday) day.
An excerp from the following link: target=new >http://investor.msn.com/home.asp
"Out-of-Sight Value" 2/4/98
2. Exaggerate the importance of price.
Never, ever overpay. Never, ever buy at or near 52-week highs. You are not a corporation or a management company. As an individual investor, you have different, higher risks than the manager of a public mutual fund or Berkshire Hathaway. This is particularly true if, like most individual investors, you run a concentrated portfolio.
As Buffett would say, wait for the perfect pitch from the market: You are free to take as many strikes as you like. The idea of a margin of safety is to win by not losing, and your success on this count will be determined by the price you pay.
Adding the criteria, the stock must be within 30% of its 52-week low, the list of stocks looks like this:
Many of the best investors know how to recognize fundamental overvaluation in the market. Buffett liquidated his investment partnership in the late 1960s amid the go-go speculation. And he was down to three stocks in 1987 when the market corrected 22% that October. Buffett again timed the market by selling stock and putting it into 10-year zero-coupon bonds last summer. Marty Whitman, fabled manager of the Third Avenue Value Fund, had up to 40% cash this past year prior to the correction.
So how to time the market? Value investors actually have an advantage, since they will recognize a pricey market as being one in which it's hard to find traditional values. When this trouble becomes extreme, the rational investor will passively raise cash instead of forcing money into borderline situations.
In this case, the market likely will have priced in a perfect future. As the future is never perfect, some event will come along and disrupt the picture. In this event, move to the sidelines. Jump in later with fistfuls of cash when the best businesses are on sale and everyone else finds they are capital-depleted and fully invested.
aren't you worried that microsoft or american express can eventually move into the market for money transfer and take a big bite out of the market share. I keep with this events by visitng the site http://www.investornet.com or target=new >http://www.ipomaven.com