Intuit seems to be making a strong push to online use of its tax software this year. It is available via Quicken, Fidelity, Vanguard, etc. It seems to me that the convenience of this product makes it likely that users will wait until closer to the tax deadlines to file. If so, many users will not buy the product in Dec and Jan, but will wait instead until Feb, Mar. And I think the online product is 'free' until you file so Intuit won't see money from that until Mar and Apr.
If the tax product is getting lots of sales growth perhaps earnings will look fine, but if not, this upcoming earnings report might be weaker than usual for Intuit's 'best' quarter.
This is a reason that I bowed out of my holdings two weeks ago. I have a feeling that you are correct. Intuit as much as said that a while back, that their revenues would be delayed a quarter for Turbo Tax because of the Internet play. I'm thinking that this upcoming announcement for the quarter will be shy of the mark. If it is we will see INTU at $24, and I will be buying Options instead of stock for the next quarter.
I hope that I am wrong, for the sake of J_Smales, Volareus, paulohl and the rest of the contributors to this board. I'm not leaving out my comrade tom_richards_mm. He just doesn't own any stock as yet.