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MUNI MTG Message Board

  • murphyqu03 murphyqu03 Apr 2, 2013 9:19 AM Flag

    where do you guys see this going?

    To be honest this has gone up so much more than my expectations (which were basically just based on a hopefully good return, not any sort of analysis). So this is the area I was thinking about getting out at. Do you really believe it can still go a lot higher?


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    • All stock valuation except liquidation situations (which MMAB officers swear they are not interested in) are based on earnings per share (or some form of cash flow). Thus far, the rise has been based upon Net Asset Value appreciation which is more appropriate for liquidation scenarios. I believe Falcone and company that they want to run a going concern. However, I cannot yet see a clear view of earnings going forward (forget the reported earnings per share which is full of extraordinary (not to be repeated events) events which they needed to make MMAB solvent.

      I am still bullish on this stock but I have a full allocation within my non-taxable portfolio of course) and so am not buying more. My suspicion is that it is still a strong buy but until we get a clear view of a quarter without extraordinary events and newer lower interest rates on MMAB obligations, it is hard to tell how much this is worth.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to rycotechapel
      • I agree this should move from a liquidation price to a price based on "normal" metrics.

        Currently have a PS=0.42, which is very cheap.

        Last Y eps=0.24, at current price 1.25, the PE is around 5....

        Have to conclude the price could easily DOUBLE from here. even 4x not that far-fetched.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Rycotechapel - I agree with your first paragraph but cannot see where this company is going as far as new business. A lot of you on this board have probably made a lot of money on this stock over the past year to your optimism paid off (and I wish I had bought more stock at $0.25....) but can anybody tell me how to value this company other than valuing their $1 billion of bonds less liabilities?

        Other than the South Africa fund, how is MuniMae going to do any new business in the future after they have lost their subordinate debt holders millions? In the affordable arena, you just don't come back if you lose people that much money. They seem to be indicating its the end of originations by selling off their remaining interest in OakGrove (one of hte most respected GSE originators out there). In a few years, this company should be renamed South Africa Ventures Fund since they can't seem to do any new business in the United States.....

    • Yose, Beginvestor - you guys usually seem to have a really good handle on this one...