I am still a believer in this stock. Though I have not been very accurate on predicting the stock price. Based on past released numbers I would estimate the next distribution to be in the $.50 to $.60 range, if their drilling cost are complete for awhile. Any estimate on what the stock price will do with a distribution in this range. I would think it would go back up to the $17.00 to $20.00 range. Buy like I said I have been wrong before.
Why do you think the distribution will be back to .5-.6 ? Have the costs associated with the bad well been fully covered now? And how much will the lack of production from that well influence the overall production. I haven't looked into this, so just asking, not saying you are wrong.
I could be wrong Liza, but I am going off of their last distribution disclosure. They said:
"As a result of the abandoned horizontal well, future production volumes for the underlying properties associated with the one well in the Kurten Woodbine Unit, which has 105 producing wells, will be delayed. VOC Brazos has informed the Trust that the remaining cost of the abandoned well with respect to the Trust’s net profits interest is approximately $2.0 million, which was included in calculating this announced quarterly distribution. While this announced distribution and future distributions to the Trust from the net profits interest are anticipated to be impacted by this event, this event does not impair the reserves in the Kurten Field, and the Trust will not lose barrels in connection with calculating the term of the net profits interest. Additionally, VOC Brazos may elect to drill the abandoned well from a new location in 2013. The third horizontal well planned for 2012 was spudded in October 2012 and put on production in December 2012."
This tells me the cost of the abandoned well and I assume most of the cost of the new well have been included in the last distribution. It also says a new horizontal well has gone on production. The additional revenue from this new well should be included in the next distribution.
As I said in an earlier post, I do not see how the 3 to 4 million dollar cost on one well could cause the true value of this company to go down by $10 a share or $170,000,000. If oil goes to $50 or $60 a barrel I could see this.
The reason I expect the distribution to be $.50 to $.60 is that is what the distribution was before the cost of these two wells started. The abandoned well never produced so it should have no effect on the other producing wells, and the price of crude is up.
I think I have just convinced myself to buy some more stock. I better stop thinking or I may go broke!