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Evolving Systems Inc. Message Board

  • msilcpom msilcpom Jun 27, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    Watch for breakout

    Would like to see a break above $8.55. Technical strong buy at helpisland website.

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    • Quite frankly, I am surprised that this stock went down to the $8 range given the recent dividends, the fact that it has been strongly cash-flow positive for a long time and also has a history of being generous to shareholders with special dividends. A 5% yield is absurdly high for a company that has good growth prospects also and even 4% is generous. While this is not GE or ATT in terms of its size and history, it has a nice little track record that creates enough trust that the dividend should be fairly solid. I expect a good Q2 (not a blowout as I believe the nature of their business has high recurring revenues that build over time.)

      All that said, I think a solid Q2, along with the reassurance that the dividend is solid will leave this easily at $10 and positioned to go higher if there are more wins forthcoming. At $10, the 4% is generous.

      I am wondering what Karen Singer will do with her position over time?? It is clearly too large to sell into the market, so she must be banking on a takeout at some point in the future. Thad is not getting younger, so I can see this being a highly attractive target at a fair price in the coming 12 months, given how cheap money is to borrow and how desperate companies are for growth.

    • Nice to finally see some buying! EVOL a bargain below $10. Big dividend and should have a nice report in August. Even though earnings were only .05/share last quarter, there was a large increase in bookings & backlog. They also made several bullish comments about a strong Q2 coming.

      From the Q1 earnings PR:

      "We followed strong third and fourth quarter bookings results with a first quarter record performance in the category of license and service bookings," said Thad Dupper, Chairman and CEO. "Total license and services bookings increased 42% year over year while license and services bookings for our flagship Dynamic SIM Allocation™ (DSA) solution grew 95% over the same period, indicating growing market acceptance of DSA as wireless carriers capitalize on the product's competitive benefits. Bookings momentum pushed our license and services backlog up 40% in the first quarter to $7.8 million from $5.6 million a year ago. At the same time, our DSA license and services backlog increased 72% in the first quarter to $5.3 million from $3.1 million year over year. We believe this backlog growth positions us for strong revenue and EBITDA performance in the second quarter."

      From the CC transcript:

      "In summary, based on our bookings performance, increasing backlog and our FUA license renewal expectations, we are confident that we are well-positioned to deliver a strong performance in the second quarter as well for the entire year."

      "So I would say the shape and form of this backlog compared to prior quarters, a year is a backlog that can be converted to revenue much more efficiently than in the past. And that's one of the reasons we are so bullish on our Q2 outlook."

 
EVOL
10.04-0.03(-0.30%)Nov 21 4:00 PMEST

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