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Enerplus Corporation Message Board

  • saiani saiani Oct 13, 2005 1:51 PM Flag

    This is insane

    This this is taking a years div in a day and isn't done yet, this sure looks like a market crash to me, the reasons for these big down swing we hearing about don't hold water, it's all BS, just like back in 200 with the Techs. I am pulling iut everything, uncle sam is going to love me at tax time but it will cost me less no that if I hold give it back at this rate.

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    • Tech stock didn't pay a 11% dividend in 2000 while ERF does. The dividend will support the price at some point.

    • It is insane that newbie longs in this stock think it is insane to think the price could fall to where it was only 2 months ago.

      Blind greed.

      • 1 Reply to a_successful_investor
      • "It is insane that newbie longs in this stock think it is insane to think the price could fall to where it was only 2 months ago.

        Blind greed."

        What a great way to classify a bunch of people you don't know. Now lets do a little thinking here... Say a company such as Microsoft annouces that in two quarters they will pay a special 10% dividend to investors. Wouldn't it be logical for new investors to buy the stock up to the point where that 10% dividend had been factored into owning the stock?

        Why do I ask you this? If you were what your name claims you are, the answer would be clear... two months ago there was no problem with natural gas supplies. Today there is. Throughout the winter there will be. You claim I act based on "Blind greed" as a 'newbie long' (good word choice by the way with the 'newbie long', I like that), that simply isn't the case. The new longs are entering into ERF with the understanding ERF will benefit from the new market conditions for natural gas. I say 'new' because they were completely different two months ago. So why should we not think its a bit 'insane' for ERF's share price to head to the prices of the previous market conditions?

        Personally I think the momentum has attracted a lot of shaky investors looking for a quick buck and they are easily shaken out when the stock shows any weakness. Compound that with those who want to 'preserve' their gains for the year and you have a very volatile situation. I'm happy to profit from it though, as I sold part of my position two days ago and picked it back up today. I'll hold the majority at least through the end of March, after that we'll see.


        ps if the tax-reform for canroys to gather enough momentum to seem inevitable as some are beginning to think, this would once again change the market conditions. But I think the dividends and capital gains from the canroys are going to be so huge this winter that more intelligent thinking will prevail and the government will keep the situation largely as it stands now.

    • One more reason you might not have heard about is Income Trusts review by the Canadian finance minister, and stopping the issue of "Advance tax rulings"
      Chances are, Canroys will loose their tax-free status, and perhaps, that is one of the risks that market is pricing in right now ...
      Well.. i have my ERF stock in stock certificates, so i will hold for now .. Could not sell quickly even if i wanted to :-)

    • when you think its all over its time to pick up some spare change . buy half you can now it will bounce a bit tomorrow.
      Oil inventory news is bland at best , its a lagging forecast

    • Shaking out the ones protecting their profits. That's what these swings are designed to do. Guess they were designed well...

      ERF is a winter story. Say whatever you wish about natural gas already being priced in and this heading lower. Its simply not true. Oil prices were flat from the beginning of april to august yet oil stocks shot up as nobody anticipated the strength would last in oil. This is the same situation. The winter will produce high nat gas from oct-march and ERF will go higher as it (nat gas) stays flat.

      But anyways, hope your profits were good, but sad to lose you in such an aimless swing.


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