"It is insane that newbie longs in this stock think it is insane to think the price could fall to where it was only 2 months ago.
What a great way to classify a bunch of people you don't know. Now lets do a little thinking here... Say a company such as Microsoft annouces that in two quarters they will pay a special 10% dividend to investors. Wouldn't it be logical for new investors to buy the stock up to the point where that 10% dividend had been factored into owning the stock?
Why do I ask you this? If you were what your name claims you are, the answer would be clear... two months ago there was no problem with natural gas supplies. Today there is. Throughout the winter there will be. You claim I act based on "Blind greed" as a 'newbie long' (good word choice by the way with the 'newbie long', I like that), that simply isn't the case. The new longs are entering into ERF with the understanding ERF will benefit from the new market conditions for natural gas. I say 'new' because they were completely different two months ago. So why should we not think its a bit 'insane' for ERF's share price to head to the prices of the previous market conditions?
Personally I think the momentum has attracted a lot of shaky investors looking for a quick buck and they are easily shaken out when the stock shows any weakness. Compound that with those who want to 'preserve' their gains for the year and you have a very volatile situation. I'm happy to profit from it though, as I sold part of my position two days ago and picked it back up today. I'll hold the majority at least through the end of March, after that we'll see.
ps if the tax-reform for canroys to gather enough momentum to seem inevitable as some are beginning to think, this would once again change the market conditions. But I think the dividends and capital gains from the canroys are going to be so huge this winter that more intelligent thinking will prevail and the government will keep the situation largely as it stands now.