"And yes 40 and 7 by this time next year is a very widely held opinion amongst all but pumpers and momo players who missed the boat."
Could you please post the links for these projections? Since these numbers are "widely held", I'm sure you've got lots of them.
Since I don't have a crystal ball, all I can do is listen to the guidance from the Canroys and their analysts. Going forward, HTE is forecasting oil at $55 and NG at $8 (which seems reasonable for the spring). PWT guidance is a good bit higher. The analysts I've read are in the same ballpark.
"Could you please post the links for these projections?"
How about my projections? Mine are as good as the next guy but I include political card as one should.
Next year is an election year and our congresscritters whose congressional seats are in peril will put pressure on the right people to make sure oil is $40 and natgas is $7.00 or less so they can look good to the voters. And those of you who think oil cannot be manipulated haven't been paying attention. I don't have to remind you what you are paying for gasoline now versus summertime. Why? The Xmas retailer wants your money before you pay your energy bill. And The President and the FED made it happen to keep the economy humming.
I gotta jump in. 2 years ago, PGH said that they could and would maintain their distribution with $30 oil and $5 ngas. Abet that the distribution was 10% less than pgh's distribution for this month and 18% lower than next months. kWith the new hedges in place at almost twice $30 and $5 I'm not concerned with a correction to $40 & $7 next year (at least as far as the distributions go). I worry more about all that shut in gas in the Gulf this year (500bcf)not being shut in next year.