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Enerplus Corporation Message Board

  • kopach kopach Sep 5, 2009 7:19 PM Flag

    Fools Oil at 30 in a few months

    You dont get it there is no real demand for oil at all here. Its just manipulation of commodity markets here with no demand for anything. There will be massive jail time when these fools get caught with this manipulation games.We have a glut of supply of oil in the market place. Commodity prices are going to tank for everything here. No demand world wide for anything. World has a supply glut of everything.Thats the reality.You will see everything crash on this reality. Markets will crash also. Governments cant keep holding up commodity prices with their massive spending because now all currencies are worthless here.

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    • So, where do you recomend that we park our money for now and until when?

    • I agree. Whenever there is a drop in price of oil, I get a bit worried -- although my worries are irrational. Everything points to higher oil prices.

      I can't figure out why energy is down today across the board, except natural gas and ERF, EPD, ENB, etc.

      Wow, as I'm typing this, the Dow is up....

    • Don't bet on it. The USD is doomed. The only growth right now is in Asia, not North America or Europe. China will continue to grow at 8-9% which will require large amounts of fuel. There is no sign whatsoever that Bernanke will stop the monetization of debt. How can he? The market is facing over $2.5 trillion of mortgage resets in the next two years with all the ARMS, no-docs, and other crappy toxic mortgages resetting. China has deliberatley decided to slow down its purchase of Treasuries. Japan is on "life support". There is simply no one else left to "finance" our grotesque, obscene debt. Commodities (including oil) remain in a confirmed long-term secular bull market which will run until 2017-2018. Count on it.

    • What a stupid post. "No real demand"???? What do you think that people are burning in their cars and furnaces? Goose droppings? Is that "imaginary" demand?

      How can you say that there is NO real demand?

      Surely you have more brain cells than that.

    • It will be fascinating to watch price of oil. During the recession, the amount of oil consumed dropped from 89 to 83 million barrels/day. So, I guess there must be some demand for oil ... like about 83 million barrels/day.

      In addition, the international board that tracks oil demand said oil demand would reach 2007 levels in 2012.

      Every state in the US, except North Dakota, has had declining oil production for the past several years. North Dakota's production increased 17% over same time period.

      But all this is idle chatter; oil price is vaguely tied into supply and demand. The most relevant tie-in with oil is the strength of the dollar.

      The dollar hit a one-year low today; Obama asks Congress to extend debt ceiling to >$13 trillion dollars and China is worried about US printing dollars. And, guess what, oil jumped more than $3.00 today.

      I don't know about $30 oil in the next few months; it's possible, but I'm betting the other way.

      However, if it hits $30, I will be buying a lot of shares in energy companies. Everything will be on sale.

    • current oil prices are not the result of manipulation. its speculation. there is a big difference, althought both result in over-pricing. both create the same result, a commodity which trades above its 'real' demand level. it takes time, but eventually more oil will be produced than can be consumed at the higher prices and we will get a hammered oil price. nat gas, corn, soybeans, etc are all trading at levels that reflect their supply/demand scenarios. not surprisingly there are less speculators in those markets (nat gas seems to have equal weight short/long speculators).

      don't worry about manipulators. the oil market it too big to be manipulated for more than a day or so. its the speculators that are the real problem. the uso is the problem.

    • "no demand for anything".

      kopach neither you nor I know what oil price will be. we can only bet on the trend. I hope you are not living in an isolated cell in the basement of the capital

      example: China is manufacturing more vehicles than US this year.
      Chinese save around 40% of their earnings. Chinese government pushing to bring down savings to generate more internal demand

      example: Sugar shortages rising. India is biggest importer/consumer. currently looks like shortage of sugar which has/will drive up the price

    • Keep in mind that "worthless currencies" result in infinite commodity prices.

      YUX

      • 1 Reply to yuksamash
      • Yes, and no demand for commodities results in a strong currency and low equities prices.

        So the original poster has all bases covered, he will be proven almost correct no matter which way the economy moves...

        Since I see he/she is from the Washington DC capitol area and apparently knows nothing concerning the relationship between supply and demand vs value of currencies, I'm going to assume he works for the US government. Maybe he is a chief economist for US government...

 
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