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Churchill Downs Inc. Message Board

  • lorddarley lorddarley Jun 18, 2006 9:39 AM Flag

    what is chdn worth ?

    In today's dollars, without a lot of pie in the sky about slots, hotel development, etc.,
    I'm figuring that $500 M is a pretty fair indication of what the tracks would sell for.

    Add in the "optimism" premium for slots, and it's right around the present enterprise value of $550 - $600 M.

    I might buy if it drops a few more points. As for MECA, I wouldn't touch it due to management.


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    • The only thing the real estate has going for it is the proximity to the University of Louisville. Otherwise the area is one of "shot-gun" homes on very tiny lots.
      The Derby is the value, not the real estate in this case.
      The value of CRC is the real estate plus the slots (when and if).
      Simulcast content may be a cash cow if the overseas market comes to fruition.
      Any indication of who will win the New York franchise? A combination of MECA & CHDN operation would be interesting.

    • What is 275 acres of prime northwest suburban Chicago real estate worth?

      • 1 Reply to stoppedout
      • <<What is 275 acres of prime northwest suburban Chicago real estate worth? >>

        Figure that with the need for zoning and planning approvals in an uptight community that you are 5 years from laying a brick.

        So you discount the "value" by 35% + legal fees + a contingency that they don't let you develop to full capacity. And knowing that interest rates go up, you discount more.

        Mr. D, sold for about $80 M in CHDN stock, if I recall correctly. My own estimate is that AP is worth $175 - $200 M in today's dollars, if it were to be sold today. As a racetrack, I wouldn't pay $100 M, because the gaming is given to other establishments and CHDN has totally fumbled with the crooked IL pols.


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