LG Electronics Inc said on Friday it would unveil its first Google TV next week, joining Sony Corp and Samsung Electronics Co in partnering with the search giant to get a foothold in the emerging Internet TV market.
I doubt it means bye-bye, but it does mean TiVo has a deep and agile competitor who likely has avoided all the intellectual property traps that other DVR makers stupidly assumed were unpatentable or unpatented.
It is a good reason to lower TiVo's expected revenue from its own equipment and from royalties going forward, and from subscriber fees as the competition steals customers. Since this competition has no customers, it's not possible for customers to flow the other way yet, so equilibrium is guaranteed to be at a lower customer count for TiVo. In order to retain customers, TiVo will also have to start looking at lowering subscription fees. So equilibrium subscriber revenues will be lower.
I'm going to think about dumping my TiVo holdings. I won't do it just now. But the argument I've posed here isn't looking weak. I'll decide before close today, though.
You're assuming a growing field has a static customer count. Unless you provide evidence Internet-connected media devices outputting to a TV will go in decline, you cannot draw the conclusions you have.
As for TiVo needing to lower subscription fees, I seriously doubt that will happen. TiVo just raised rates a while back, and is clearly opting to compete on the quality of product instead of price. It makes sense when it's almost impossible for TiVo to undercut an MSO that can sell boxes at a loss to increase profit from the services sold.