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TiVo Inc. Message Board

  • lemonyelow1 lemonyelow1 Oct 31, 2013 10:52 AM Flag

    trying times

    ... for someone who bought a couple of days after $14.20 on mammoth volume. I used to "play Blackberry" - in the times when shorting almost always was the right call ... and, of course, there were occasional rallies on what must have been a mix of manipulation and wishful thinking - things like reports that MSFT was "kicking the tires." ... For whatever reason, any rumors that Netflix might be "in discussions" with TIVO (and let me emphasize - I haven't heard such rumors and would be skeptical if I did, just because ANY single merger is at least 10-to-1 against in the absence of insider info) didn't make the obvious "news places" that we can call the "usual suspects."

    Let me re-phrase and "speculate" - Maybe, folks were whispering last Thursday that such an event was possible. Even then, I have trouble seeing how a couple of days gains on largish volume could be "walked back down" over the next 5 days - right to this point near 11 AM on Thursday, one week later.

    But, of course, I'm just hoping that I got in a few days earlier. This piece: -
    easy to find via Google with search words like Fried Tullo TIVO MPVD -
    makes an awfully compelling "bull case." Just a "taste," but the "heart of the artichoke!":

    We wish we were smart enough to build a model with fine detail b ut we think the value is so compelling with TIVO that’s a discussion that needs to be tabled until about $20 per share.

    To be clear, we think TIVO at $13 is an acquisition target given the strategic value re presented by TIVOs patents, TIVO's strong balance sheet and nose in the tent of MVPD's that have 78 million subs in aggregate, suggests to us that the premium could be large or investors are better served by no deal.

    The analyst reiterated an Overweight rating and price target of $23.00.


    Yes, it's the kind of "rave" that reminds me of the late 90's, but I'm a believer at this point

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