Tom made a big deal a quarter or 2 back about his company having moved into the black. Of course, there was some accounting "trickery" involved, but the key thing - it suckered me in for a bit - was that he asserted that there was "no turning back," i.e., it was profitable ... TO STAY.
Well, fast forward to today, maybe 6 months later, and methinks we'd see a big plate of "crow," if we could see anything at all ... and it wasn't the case that he'd rather order prime ribs, since shareholders are paying for it. In plain English, how does a team justify compensation in the tens of millions when they've delivered zilch to shareholders ... and have made a hash out of a new product launch that was something of a "watch us reinvent ourselves" event.
It won't be long before Ackman or somebody like him points out that TIVO's emperor (the whole company, in fact) is not wearing any clothes. Ask yourself what a fair price is for a company that has a business model that is flawed beyond repair, and one that's still owned widely by institutions who cannot help but see signs that a pretty strong balance sheet (courtesy of the settlement) is starting to hemorrhage. Hint, it's a one-digit number - and not necessarily 8 or 9.
I suppose you're not as nutty as tim thinks, so ... NO, I am not a perma bear on anything or any stock. Neither do I go back with this company or stock more than 6 months.
But you ARE brain dead in ignoring rule #1 re investing - consider the future, not the past.
TIVO *did* have a better mousetrap 2-10 years back. Too bad they had to "waste" quite a bit of time and money to keep others from stealing their best ideas. Don't kid yourself - while the settlement sent a ton of money their way, it's a lot like those people who pursue medical malpractice suits and quite a bit that's similar.... By the time the lawyers have gotten their piece and 10 years have gone by, the plaintiffs (even the successful ones) are often far from "made whole."
Anyhow, the terrain has changed from even 2 years back - if you haven't noticed, there's truly no hope for you. Has TIVO kept up? NO - it looks to me like they've gotten too ingrained with a set-top box model. It's painfully similar to land-lines - something that took 100 years to get to 99.9% "penetration," and the unwinding process (dropping back to 70% of the under 30's) took/takes 5 years.
TIVO's not unaware of the change, but you really have to wonder whether 3 years focus on SUPER-TIVO (a/k/a Roamio) ever made sense.
Just as Best Buy had an unjolly Xmas, I'm betting (literally!) that TIVO did, too.
As luck would have it (for the longs), a little covering and a VERY strong market for tech stocks has left this rotting fruit still hanging almost proudly from the tree. Of course, it hasn't participated in most updrafts for at least a year, but that's because its rot is hardly a secret.... And just as with BBRY, you can defy gravity for at least a year or 2 if enuf people think that "they always have the exit strategy of taking a ton of money from X via a buyout." ... But just like BBRY, it's a lot easier to plug in values for X than it is to find one that works. The logical buyers look at buy vs. build & TIVO doesn't compute.