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Lee Enterprises, Incorporated Message Board

  • mossbrunson mossbrunson Dec 20, 2011 2:29 PM Flag

    Question for Glen Bradford

    Are those youtube videos of you supposed to be a comedy? Listening you stumble over calculating a PEG and talking about stocks with P/E's in the single digits and growth rates at 100%+ makes me laugh.

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    • You caught me, I'm a mega short here to destroy LEE........cats out of the bag. My cheerleaders cheer harder than yours can so I feel we can win based on our collective ability to hope.

    • Yes, I have read the previous posts and as you point out, the rebuttals seem to be the same. I personally rarely short anything......not to mention that as thinly traded as this stock is, the costs to borrow shares would likely be prohibitively high. But, if the general prediction of $2.50 comes to pass, then you can bet I will be back to short in 3.5 years. Thanks for the recommendation.

    • G_luck...you said << "Its hit rock bottom , now that the BK is out of the way theres no further to fall" or "its trading at 1 X cash flow"......I believe I've pointed out the flaws in these arguments, so now I'm hoping someone can prove me wrong using fundamentals.>>

      People have been hashing out the fundamentals for the last six months in many posts on this board. You could just read previous posts, your concerns about fundamentals, today, have been addressed, many times over, by those who own lee shares. Now, you may not agree with these arguments, and may want to go short, that would be a fair thing to do I suppose...

      Cheers!

      Cheers

    • thanks gluck...I only ask because you post A LOT, and was wondering if you have a financial interest in LEE....

      Cheers

    • Matthew,

      Nope not fun. A good friend of mine invested in LEE against my recommendation, so I figured to come here to see if I was missing something......and someone could set me straight. So far all i hear about LEE is the same argument "Its hit rock bottom , now that the BK is out of the way theres no further to fall" or "its trading at 1 X cash flow"......I believe I've pointed out the flaws in these arguments, so now I'm hoping someone can prove me wrong using fundamentals. I agree with those two above arguments on paper BTW. ........it just appears that everyone here read the earnings release, but didn't actually go into the 10K to see what cash flow is made of, or why revenue is decreasing. Believe me, I won't be here much longer based on the quality of the posts I'm seeing.

    • I do my own DD, but did not post it on this board...I was referencing the work of others that post here, many of who's math matched mine...

      And respectfully, you said you don't own any shares, but you sure do post a heck of a lot, all of a sudden. It's your right of course to share your opinion here, but I'm curious, what's your interest, just a good debate?

      Cheers!

    • Be careful of the "others" you listen to on their math. From the little I've gathered while being here there seems to be a contingent of people following this "Glen Bradford" if it is his math you are following, you might want to double check. Also if you look into Free cash flow you will see that a disturbingly large chunk of it is comprised of "depreciation" which is a non-cash item.

    • Gbrad,

      you are making some awfully bold assumptions that I'm skeptical you can back up. Newspapers have been in decline for the past 10 years for a reason........everyone can get their news for free online now. I used to have my local papers delivered, but stopped because they rarely were able to offer unique information that I couldn't source myself on the web. While you are right that newspapers will always remain that does not make them a good investment. Trees will always be on the planet to.....should I run out and buy a lumberyard? As for LEE being safe for 4 years your point fails to deliver on how that makes LEE a good investment. Unless something drastic changes, LEE is headed for chapter 7 in 4 years. Is your point that you are going to catch a pop between then and now and sell out......very possible, but you would be ignoring the fundamental risk/reward rules of investing.

    • you said it yourself, it may be safe for 4 more years.

      that's good enough for me given the present price. i think that there are some shorts out there destroying these paper based companies. paper isn't gone folks.. it's the electronic trading systems that everyone is about ready to start fearing!

      lol everyone is running to farm ground, gold and other tangible assets.

      lee will be around 10 years from today. newspapers are fun to read.

    • Beer,

      First, thanks for the reply. To play devils advocate, here would be my responses to your statements:

      1) "Newspapers are a transitioning industry. Online revenues are increasing in the double digits every quarter."

      fair enough, it is true that online is growing however I am skeptical that online revenues although growing will ever reach the revenue levels that paper deliveries once enjoyed.....while you are right that "dying" may have been a strong word, I have yet to see any indication that newspapers will grow in aggregate. Revenues across the board are declining on the whole (yes, i understand online is growing but not at a fast enough pace to fill the whole created by paper subscribers leaving)

      2) "people were shorting this stock because of a possible BK and shareholder wipeout"

      True there could be a short squeeze, but frankly short interest as a percentage of float really isn't all that high (5.29M short...float of 40.2M).....perhaps it was higher earlier? that would indicate that if there were to be a substantial short squeeze, you have already seen it.

      3) "Now we have a company which is safe for 4 more years, with growing cash flow and reduced debt every year...and it's trading at 1x cashflow and .25 book value."

      It may be safe for 4 more years but then what? it has to refi a massive debt burden in 4 years and it will have to do so at higher rates. Its interest expense as a percentage of operating income for the past three years eats up the vast majority of any operating profit, and now they have higher rates. How do you figure that they will pay down debt? Their free cash flow is suspect at best and they have deferred cap ex on top of that. BTW it seems to me that Free cash flow has declined every year for the last three years.....where do you see it increasing?

      I undertand that based on the current metrics this looks like a value play, but when you actually look at what those metrics are based on (free cash flow, earnings etc.) you will see that they are not sustainable......which of course changes the metrics themselves. ie: book value may be .25 now until you look and see that the assets of LEE are mostly "intangible" which means that at best they have a highly volatile value in the event of a liquidation. As for free cash flow, its been awhile since i took accounting and I was never a star in it in the first place, but it seems to me that a very high percentage of LEE's free cash flow is not cash at all....its actually depreciation.

      Someone please set me straight. Thanks.

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LEE
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