Recent newspaper deals,put the true value on papers. If Lee were to,sell all their papers to local billionaires, the total revenue would be slightly more than what they owe, not counting pension obligations. This sobering fact has never been more obvious. Sell sell sell and go short, now. Final warning.
That post is an embarrasment to your good name. You need to look at what they've been achieving. And you need to have some opinion of how long they can keep squeezing costs, faster than their revenue shrinkage. (I tend to feel they can do it for at least the next 2-3 years....which probably could get the debt down to maybe a much more manageable $650-700 M or so.)
Lee is not MNI....anymore. They are "decoupling." imho.
Tim, please understand the tidal wave that is is headed to Missoula, and Carbondale and Tucson. The smart phone integration will have a drastic impact on time spent reading print. Tablet growth in smaller towns that .Lee serves will make it less likely that people will continue to subscribe to even small town papers. As Lee cuts cost, they also cut quality and head count, so the reporters that gather the local news are stretched thinner than ever, so less news, less readers due to less news, and the spiral continues.
Lee isn't immune to this, it's reality, and the reality is, Lee's near monopolistic position in local markets is gone. Advertising has become a commodity, and advertisers buy the lowest cpm possible at this point. Now, Lee will surely be able to stay around for several more years, and may be able to switch people from print to tablet subscriptions. What Lee loses in this transaction, as does every other publishing company, is the preprint, classified and ROP ad revenue that was the backbone of the industry for decades. Display ads and banner ads and intrusive ads have a horrible, dismal click through rate, and there are few other options most newspapers can maximize digitally. The ad business is all about search, and in the very near future will all be about mobile search and SEM, if it's not there already.
There are far too many companies providing good solid news online for the majority of people to pay too much for the e-version of their local paper. (Espn, USA today, yahoo, google news, Bloomberg, Examiner, and on and on and on
Sentiment: Strong Sell
The risk/reward here is very compelling. This appears to be a great management team. The way they have taken costs out and right sized this business is impressive. Their presentation at a recent conference was impressive. I think they make it, and I think the stock is way undervalued.