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  • jesterbunk jesterbunk Apr 18, 2010 3:47 PM Flag

    Kotick, kindley step down

    ATVI has been successful the last couple of years because of three things - GH (fading fast), Blizzard (nothing to do with Kotick), IW (Kotick driving off talent). Nothing else moves the needle.

    That the other publishers have failed to drive earnings while creating new IP merely highlights the problem of where to derive continued growth from. Taking the company as a whole, yes Blizzard can carry a lot of weight. Taking the part Kotick has been running, it's in decline and he's alienated a lot of people. Poor management IMO. The Vivendi buyout and Blizzard earnings saved his ass.

    I don't think Blur or Singularity will do well at all, and both are very late too which means additional costs.

    Re West and Zampella, they've done it 3/3 with Medal of Honor Allied Assault, Call of Duty, then Modern Warfare which in particular seems to have been an IP they had to fight for against ATVI's wishes who would have milked WW2 to death by now.

    Market research only tells you what people recently liked. We'd never have something like Assassin's Creed or Bioshock based on market research. Chasing market research is part of what drove MWY into the ground.

    "But my main premise of VG industry is that the rebounds starts in March last month. And could continue to beat YoY until EoY imo. Remember, in 2008 we have 29000 titles, in 2009 only 22000 titles. And 2009 VG pretty much sucks!! 2010 looks promising imo, and it is worth the risk! GME, ERTS, ATVI, TTWO all has been beaten down to pretty much 2-3years low. now it's time for the revenge imo."

    Quite possible, yes. Not that any of the sector names are particularly cheap but as this market shows it can buy (or sell) a story over and over and over regardless of valuation, until the story changes. And that story does look promising. ATVI though has nothing of interest in the next 7 months except SC2. For a company this size with a $15BN market cap, that's rather weak.

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