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Activision Blizzard, Inc. Message Board

  • maroldaj3 maroldaj3 Apr 30, 2010 10:32 AM Flag

    I thought we were done after Wed.

    After the heavy volume on Wed, I thought we saw capitulation in this stock. We were up on Thur on a natural rebound and good news from the Bungie deal.

    So what's going on today?
    Are we still feeling the pain from the lingering lawsuit?

    They pre-announced better than forecast earnings. Is it that the expected earnings are not good enough? Or that analysts don't think the forward looking report is going to be positive?

    Or are we just following the overall market?

    Just looking for some rational examination for why we are not slowly trending up going into earnings.

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    • Attribute it to the market overall being down. Earnings call on Thursday might get some momentum going in the positive direction.

    • There's no sense in trying to explain it because the stock is broken right now and the price action is noisy. What you should be focused on at this point is valuation. The stock could very possibly go even lower but it's a good value all the way down so you might as well buy the dips. It's funny because I don't think I've seen a single discussion over Cataclysm or SC2 in the last 2 weeks even though they're gonna be the two biggest revenue drivers this fiscal year. The revamped Battlenet is also a big deal which I think many people are overlooking. What it does is facilitate an even more integrated and seamless world which is paramount especially where MMO's are involved. WOW players who never played Starcraft may be more inclined to pick up SC2 and vice versa. It's all about synergy, just look at what Microsoft was able to do with XBL.

    • OK so why isnt ERTS tanking as well - they are losing money at a rapid rate and dont really have anything worth mentioning coming out any time soon. ATVI has all the Blizzard gems coming out soon, another modern warfare in the fall and alot other going on plus a huge sum of cash in the bank. I dont think they have scratched the surface yet of all the good news they are getting ready to spill out.

      this is just crazy selling right now, mostly guys getting in and out quick to make a few percent.

    • "They pre-announced better than forecast earnings... Just looking for some rational examination for why we are not slowly trending up going into earnings."

      You answered your own question. The good news is out. The bad news is still lingering. So many have left or are leaving IW that they need a definitive plan for MW3 to restore confidence, and we've yet to hear that. Saying you have a deep bench while people are leaving IW every day and you admit that everyone at Treyarch is busy on Black Ops isn't good enough.

    • Another thing that makes me nervous is that the analysts over at Research Team recently upgraded ATVI for sell to hold. They only have 35% rating accuracy on this stock. The upgrade pissed me off because a blessing from these guys is like the kiss of death.

 
ATVI
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