1. Company will have used the balance of the $1 billion share repurchase to acquire at least another 32 million shares
2. Company will announce a 15 cent dividend as they did in 2010.
3. With the substantial cash on hand, the board will announce plans for another $1 billion share repurchase. Based on current prices, this will represent around 80 million shares
What this translates to is a share price of $13.71 ($13.56 + dividend). Taking into account the tremendous number of $13 February call options in play and an announcement of 1,2, and 3 (without any comments on revenue growth) and hitting the $14 resistance level from January 08 is reasonable.
I look forward to comments (preferable rationale ones)
Funny, I was just about to make a post that I was losing faith, but your post splashed some cool water on my face.
Just frustrating to watch this thing go up, only to come back down intraday when most other stocks are holding up quite well. I wish I could day trade it.
I wish management would give some guidance or something ahead of earnings or maybe the sales figures serve as that OR maybe I am just impatient!
I think your premises are logical, but I also think this stock needs to take off or not. Granted, I got in a $10.69, but it seems like we should be higher. I think the street simply worries about long-term innovation... can ATVI keep producing winners like WOW and COD?
Guys, recognize that ATVI suffers from bad ownership, from the small retail investor Point of view. The company is 95% owned by Vivendi and the MMs who hold tens of millions of shares, upon which they sell options that always expire worthless.
During the Great Stupidity of late '08 and early '09, the stock price held up far better than the rest of the market, because of that ownership (they did not panic) but we still did not make any money.
In early '09 I sold most of my 16K shares, which I had held since '02 and '03--at a split adjusted cost of about fifty eight cents a share.
I bought 5K VALE @ $11., 3K GE @ 9., F and BAC @ $6 and $7., and my last 1500 shares are out on a covered call at Jan. $12.50., which I will use to exercise 15 contracts of BAC Feb, $12.
So think bigger, and don't get lost in the specifics of ATVI. This outfit will never make money for the small investor until the ownership structure changes.
Stop looking for the next blockbuster product to drive the stock price, and observe that GH, COD, WWW failed to do so.
Ownership got in the way, and small investors were left with "one time" special deductions on earnings announcement day. Check the record, and see for yourself.
Then look for better places to put your money, regardless of your excitement about the new games, and the eternal expectation that ATVI will make you rich. Cheers,
I completely agree. I recognize that management can't talk too much between quarters but I think if this sort of news came out from them, the stock would rise and the 5% and growing short interest would be forced to cover. In the meantime I wait. But like you and others (and hopefully someone from management reads my next statement) even though I am long, I might soon sell some of my position and move into another company whose technicals and fundamentals look good but whose stock price actually moves enough for me to justify owning it.